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France et Allemagne : une histoire du désajustement européen

Author

Listed:
  • Mathilde Le Moigne

    (ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

La divergence économique entre la France et l'Allemagne depuis 1993 est impressionnante. Alors que les deux pays étaient dans des situations comparables à la fin des années 1990, l'Allemagne est aujourd'hu i au voisinage du plein emploi – en dépit d'inégalités en hausse – et est devenue l'un des pays les plus exportateurs du monde. La France connaît un niveau de chômage historique et voit ses performances commerciales se dégrader continûment. Plusieurs explications à cette divergence ont été proposées. Cet article quantifie la contribution particulière de la modération salariale allemande débutant outre-Rhin au milieu des années 1990 sur l'écart de performances économiques franco-allemand. En effet, les salaires allemands sont restés extraordinairement stables après la réunification allemande, et ce essentiellement dans les services. À l'aide d'un modèle quantitatif de commerce international, nous estimons que la modération salariale allemande est responsable de l'ordre de la moitié de l'écart de performances à l'exportation de la France par rapport à l'Allemagne, et explique environ 2% du taux de chômage français. Le problème de l'offre en France est essentiellement le résultat du désajustement européen

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Le Moigne & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "France et Allemagne : une histoire du désajustement européen," Post-Print hal-03459719, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459719
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.142.0177
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459719
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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Ragot & Ricardo Pinois, 2019. "Public debt and the world financial market," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 165-189.
    2. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Post-Print hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03612850, HAL.
    3. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l’économie keynésienne," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 173-186.
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," Post-Print hal-03403622, HAL.
    5. Thomas Grebel & Mauro Napoletano & Lionel Nesta, 2023. "Distant but Close in Sight: Firm‐level Evidence on French–German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(1), pages 228-261, March.
    6. Xavier Timbeau & Signe Dahl & Georg Feigl & Xavier Timbeau & Xavier Timbeau & Andrew Watt, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery. Independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) 2017," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 164, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    7. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l’économie keynésienne," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 173-186.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pv2em81ob86bp54ak8dq2e0a1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Thomas Grebel & Mauro Napoletano & Lionel Nesta, 2022. "Distant but Close in Sight: Firm‐level Evidence on French–German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing," Post-Print hal-04531123, HAL.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4di9av1cud81urnl29tar56o5s is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5vh68vsbm9akb9r0rkcdi4tmi is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Philippe Frocrain & Pierre-Noël Giraud, 2017. "The evolution of tradable and non-tradable employment: evidence from France," Working Papers hal-01695159, HAL.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4di9av1cud81urnl29tar56o5s is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l'économie keynésienne," Post-Print hal-03459474, HAL.

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