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Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming

Author

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  • Isabelle Tobin

    (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)

  • W Greuell

    (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen])

  • Sonia Jerez

    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • F Ludwig

    (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen])

  • R Vautard

    (ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)

  • Michelle T H van Vliet

    (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen])

  • Francois-Marie Breon

    (SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)

Abstract

The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Tobin & W Greuell & Sonia Jerez & F Ludwig & R Vautard & Michelle T H van Vliet & Francois-Marie Breon, 2018. "Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming," Post-Print hal-03323340, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03323340
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab211
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03323340
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Młyński, Dariusz & Książek, Leszek & Bogdał, Andrzej, 2024. "Meteorological drought effect for Central Europe's hydropower potential," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    3. McKenna, Russell & Pfenninger, Stefan & Heinrichs, Heidi & Schmidt, Johannes & Staffell, Iain & Bauer, Christian & Gruber, Katharina & Hahmann, Andrea N. & Jansen, Malte & Klingler, Michael & Landwehr, 2022. "High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments: A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 659-684.
    4. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    5. Yu, Shuang & Vautard, Robert, 2022. "A transfer method to estimate hub-height wind speed from 10 meters wind speed based on machine learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Feng, Z. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Climate change impacts on the future offshore wind energy resource in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 731-747.

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