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Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Nguemdjo

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LPED - Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AMU - Aix Marseille Université)

  • Freeman Meno

    (Lycée Polyvalent Franklin Roosevelt)

  • Audric Dongfack

    (ECM - École Centrale de Marseille)

  • Bruno Ventelou

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Nguemdjo & Freeman Meno & Audric Dongfack & Bruno Ventelou, 2020. "Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models," Post-Print hal-02941632, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02941632
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237832
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-02941632
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Urrutia & David Wren & Chrysafis Vogiatzis & Ruriko Yoshida, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Dissemination Using a Network of the US Counties," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, June.

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