The impacts of price variations on the sustainability of seafood consumption

Concerns over the environmental impact of seafood consumption are rising among consumers and public authorities. Previous research has established the lower impact of seafood-based diets compared to meat-based diets, but little is known about the impact of substitutions within the seafood category. Thus, we merged consumption data for species with environmental indicators of fisheries: primary production required (PPR), maximum length (ML), process (farmed; type of gear) and origin (France, EU, outside EU). Elasticities of demand for seafood in France were estimated and used to calibrate a model of adjustment in seafood consumption to variations in price or expenditure. We simulate four scenarios: an increase in seafood expenditure, and increases in the prices of salmon and small pelagic (SP), and decrease in the price of monkfish. A decrease in PPR, ML, percentage of towed and percentage of import improves fisheries sustainability. Higher seafood expenditure raises the average PPR as well as the average ML, and affects positively the share of fish consumption originating from France and the EU. An increase in price, for salmon and SP, decreases the average PPR and has no impact on the consumption share of aquaculture. Average ML decreases from rises in salmon price, but increases when the price of SP increases or the price of monkfish decreases. The percentage of fish from towed gears increases with salmon prices (coupled with an increase in the share of bottom-towed) but decreases with the price of SP (despite an increase in the share of bottom-towed). With regard to origin, higher salmon prices play in favor of seafood from France, while it is production from outside EU that benefits when the price of SP increases. Monkfish prices variation does not affect origin of seafood. This preliminary work focuses on indicators for fisheries but will be extended to include other indicators.