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Assessing the potential outcomes of achieving the World Health Organization global non-communicable diseases targets for risk factors by 2025: is there also an economic dividend?

Author

Listed:
  • M. Devaux

    (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • A. Lerouge

    (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • Bruno Ventelou

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Y. Goryakin

    (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • A. Feigl

    (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • S. Vuik

    (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • M. Cecchini

    (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: This study assesses the change in premature mortality and in morbidity under the scenario of meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) global targets for non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors (RFs) by 2025 in France. It also estimates medical expenditure savings because of the reduction of NCD burden. STUDY DESIGN: A microsimulation model is used to predict the future health and economic outcomes in France. METHODS: A 'RF targets' scenario, assuming the achievement of the six targets on RFs by 2025, is compared to a counterfactual scenario with respect to disability-adjusted life years and healthcare costs differences. RESULTS: The achievement of the RFs targets by 2025 would save about 25,300 (and 75,500) life years in good health in the population aged 25-64 (respectively 65+) years on average every year and would help to reduce healthcare costs by about €660 million on average per year, which represents 0.35% of the current annual healthcare spending in France. Such a reduction in RFs (net of the natural decreasing trend in mortality) would contribute to achieving about half of the 2030 NCD premature mortality target in France. CONCLUSIONS: The achievement of the RF targets would lead France to save life years and life years in good health in both working-age and retired people and would modestly reduce healthcare expenditures. To achieve RFs targets and to curb the growing burden of NCDs, France has to strengthen existing and implement new policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Devaux & A. Lerouge & Bruno Ventelou & Y. Goryakin & A. Feigl & S. Vuik & M. Cecchini, 2019. "Assessing the potential outcomes of achieving the World Health Organization global non-communicable diseases targets for risk factors by 2025: is there also an economic dividend?," Post-Print hal-02475129, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02475129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2019.02.009
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-02475129
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michele Cecchini & Marion Devaux & Franco Sassi, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of alcohol policies: A microsimulation approach," OECD Health Working Papers 80, OECD Publishing.
    2. Aldridge, M.D. & Kelley, A.S., 2015. "The myth regarding the high cost of end-of-life care," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 105(12), pages 2411-2415.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marion Devaux & Aliénor Lerouge & Giovanna Giuffre & Susanne Giesecke & Sara Baiocco & Andrea Ricci & Francisco Reyes & David Cantarero & Bruno Ventelou & Michele Cecchini, 2020. "How will the main risk factors contribute to the burden of non-communicable diseases under different scenarios by 2050? A modelling study," Post-Print hal-02873165, HAL.

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