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Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Monnery

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François-Charles Wolff

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes)

  • Anaïs Henneguelle

    (LIRIS - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en innovations sociétales - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1,445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (entropy balancing matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22% to 31% in offenders' hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Monnery & François-Charles Wolff & Anaïs Henneguelle, 2020. "Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model," Post-Print hal-02423761, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02423761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2019.105884
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02423761v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Monnery & Saïd Souam & Anna Montagutelli, 2021. "Economie du travail en prison : enjeux, résultats et recommandations," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Melcarne, Alessandro & Monnery, Benjamin & Wolff, François-Charles, 2022. "Prosecutors, judges and sentencing disparities: Evidence from traffic offenses in France," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Meier, Armando N. & Levav, Jonathan & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Early Release and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 13035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recidivism; semi-liberty; halfway houses; prison; survival analyses; sensitivity analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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