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Improving the measurement of export instability in the Economic Vulnerability Index: A simple proposal

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  • Sosso Feindouno

    (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

The Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) is a well-recognized measure of the structural vulnerability of developing countries and is one of the three criteria used for the identification of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Both for effectiveness and equity reasons, the EVI is also retained as a relevant criterion for aid allocation between developing countries. Such an index, in its construction as in its measure, must be beyond reproach. Here, we propose an improvement in the measurement of one of the most important component of the EVI, namely the instability of exports of goods and services. The implications of the proposal in terms of scores and ranks are then discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sosso Feindouno, 2019. "Improving the measurement of export instability in the Economic Vulnerability Index: A simple proposal," Post-Print hal-02167897, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02167897
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02167897
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2017. "Vulnerability and Resilience: A Conceptual Framework Applied to Three Asian Countries—Bhutan, Maldives, and Nepal," Working Papers 4012, FERDI.
    2. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon & Patrick Guillaumont, 2016. "Has Structural Economic Vulnerability Decreased in Least Developed Countries? Lessons Drawn from Retrospective Indices," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 591-606, May.
    3. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
    4. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
    5. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2017. "Vulnerability and Resilience: A Conceptual Framework Applied to Three Asian Countries—Bhutan, Maldives, and Nepal," Working Papers 4013, FERDI.
    6. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    7. Sosso FEINDOUNO & Michaël GOUJON, 2016. "The retrospective economic vulnerability index, 2015 update," Working Papers P147, FERDI.
    8. Patrick Guillaumont, 2014. "A necessary small revision to the EVI to make it more balanced and equitable," Post-Print halshs-01109993, HAL.
    9. White Halbert & Granger Clive W.J., 2011. "Consideration of Trends in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Feindouno, Sosso & Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2024. "COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).

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