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Volatility of Remittances to Pakistan: What do the Data Tell?

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  • Mazhar Mughal

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Farid Makhlouf

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

This paper examines the volatility of remittance flows to Pakistan using the ARCH model. We find overall remittances to be stable, whereas those from the Middle East and North America are relatively volatile, owing to fluctuations in the output of the host economies and the migrants' profile. Remittances from Europe are the least volatile and do not vary as a result of shocks to the host or home economy. Remittances to Pakistan, especially those from Europe, can thus be used as a stable source of foreign exchange flows.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mazhar Mughal & Farid Makhlouf, 2011. "Volatility of Remittances to Pakistan: What do the Data Tell?," Post-Print hal-01884874, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01884874
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-pau.hal.science/hal-01884874
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2011. "Remittances and Dutch Disease in Pakistan - a Bayesian analysis," Post-Print hal-01881836, HAL.
    2. Barassou Diawara & Mazhar Mughal, 2010. "Does every dollar count? Macro and micro evidence of remittances' impact on poverty and inequality in Pakistan," Post-Print hal-01881845, HAL.
    3. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2010. "Remittances and Dutch disease in Pakistan: A Bayesian approach," Post-Print hal-01881847, HAL.
    4. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
    5. Ilene Grabel, 2008. "The Political Economy of Remittances: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," Working Papers wp184, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    6. Ms. Dalia S Hakura & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 2009/091, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Barassou Diawara & Mazhar Yasin Mughal, 2010. "Does every dollar count? Macro and micro evidence of remittances' impact on poverty and inequality in Pakistan," Post-Print hal-01881840, HAL.
    8. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jawad, Muhammad & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Modelling the Impact of Policy Environment on Inflows of Worker’s Remittances in Pakistan: A Multivariate Analysis," MPRA Paper 85497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Farid Makhlouf & Adil Naamane, 2013. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: The Evidence from Morocco," Working Papers hal-01885148, HAL.
    3. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    4. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2014. "What drives bilateral remittances to Pakistan? A gravity model approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 209, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Florent DEISTING & Farid MAKHLOUF & Groupe ESC Pau & Adil NAAMANE, 2011. "Développement financier, flux financiers et croissance économique," Working Papers 1504, Groupe ESC Pau, Research Department, revised Dec 2011.
    6. Farid Farid, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate policy on remittances in Morocco: A Threshold VAR analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2351-2360.
    7. Farid Makhlouf, 2014. "Propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds des migrants marocains," Working Papers hal-01885146, HAL.
    8. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    9. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2023. ""From Aspirations for Climate Action to the Reality of Climate Disasters": Can Migrants Play Key Role in Disaster Response?," Working Papers hal-04137400, HAL.
    10. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Yasin Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Competitiveness: a Bayesian Analysis," Post-Print hal-01884858, HAL.
    11. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Yaseen Mughal, 2012. "Motives to remit: some microeconomic evidence from Pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 574-585.
    12. Farid Makhlouf, 2014. "Propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds des migrants marocains," Working Papers hal-01885146, HAL.
    13. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2021. "The role of remittances in times of socio-political unrest: Evidence from Tunisia," Working Papers hal-03263815, HAL.
    14. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2013. "Blessing or curse: The stabilizing role of remittances, foreign aid and FDI to Pakistan," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 153, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    16. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    17. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    18. Farid Makhlouf & Adil Naamane, 2013. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: The Evidence from Morocco," Working Papers hal-01885148, HAL.
    19. Ahmed, Junaid & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2015. "Do transfer costs matter for foreign remittances? A gravity model approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-01885149, HAL.
    21. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-01885149, HAL.
    22. KHURSHID, Adnan & KEDONG, Yin & CĂLIN, Adrian Cantemir & POPOVICI, Oana Cristina, 2017. "A Note On The Relationship Linking Remittances And Financial Development In Pakistan," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 21(4), pages 6-26.
    23. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    24. Oussama Ben Atta & Kamal Kasmaoui & Mazhar Yasin Mughal & Farid Makhlouf, 2021. "More remittances, fewer kids—Impact of remittances on fertility in Morocco," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 1238-1256, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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