IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01884874.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Volatility of Remittances to Pakistan: What do the Data Tell?

Author

Listed:
  • Mazhar Mughal

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Farid Makhlouf

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

This paper examines the volatility of remittance flows to Pakistan using the ARCH model. We find overall remittances to be stable, whereas those from the Middle East and North America are relatively volatile, owing to fluctuations in the output of the host economies and the migrants' profile. Remittances from Europe are the least volatile and do not vary as a result of shocks to the host or home economy. Remittances to Pakistan, especially those from Europe, can thus be used as a stable source of foreign exchange flows.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mazhar Mughal & Farid Makhlouf, 2011. "Volatility of Remittances to Pakistan: What do the Data Tell?," Post-Print hal-01884874, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01884874
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-pau.hal.science/hal-01884874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://univ-pau.hal.science/hal-01884874/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2011. "Remittances and Dutch Disease in Pakistan - a Bayesian analysis," Post-Print hal-01881836, HAL.
    2. Barassou Diawara & Mazhar Mughal, 2010. "Does every dollar count? Macro and micro evidence of remittances' impact on poverty and inequality in Pakistan," Post-Print hal-01881845, HAL.
    3. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2010. "Remittances and Dutch disease in Pakistan: A Bayesian approach," Post-Print hal-01881847, HAL.
    4. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
    5. Ilene Grabel, 2008. "The Political Economy of Remittances: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," Working Papers wp184, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    6. Ms. Dalia S Hakura & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 2009/091, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Barassou Diawara & Mazhar Yasin Mughal, 2010. "Does every dollar count? Macro and micro evidence of remittances' impact on poverty and inequality in Pakistan," Post-Print hal-01881840, HAL.
    8. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Farid Makhlouf & Adil Naamane, 2013. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: The Evidence from Morocco," Working Papers hal-01885148, HAL.
    2. Jawad, Muhammad & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Modeling the Impact of Policy Environment on Inflows of Worker’s Remittances in Pakistan: A Multivariate Analysis," MPRA Paper 62019, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    3. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    4. Florent DEISTING & Farid MAKHLOUF & Groupe ESC Pau & Adil NAAMANE, 2011. "Développement financier, flux financiers et croissance économique," Working Papers 1504, Groupe ESC Pau, Research Department, revised Dec 2011.
    5. Farid Farid, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate policy on remittances in Morocco: A Threshold VAR analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2351-2360.
    6. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    7. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2023. ""From Aspirations for Climate Action to the Reality of Climate Disasters": Can Migrants Play Key Role in Disaster Response?," Working Papers hal-04137400, HAL.
    8. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Yaseen Mughal, 2012. "Motives to remit: some microeconomic evidence from Pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 574-585.
    9. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2021. "The role of remittances in times of socio-political unrest: Evidence from Tunisia," Working Papers hal-03263815, HAL.
    10. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    11. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    12. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    13. Farid Makhlouf & Adil Naamane, 2013. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: The Evidence from Morocco," Working Papers hal-01885148, HAL.
    14. Farid Makhlouf, 2014. "Propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds des migrants marocains," Working papers of CATT hal-01885146, HAL.
    15. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-01885149, HAL.
    16. KHURSHID, Adnan & KEDONG, Yin & CĂLIN, Adrian Cantemir & POPOVICI, Oana Cristina, 2017. "A Note On The Relationship Linking Remittances And Financial Development In Pakistan," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 21(4), pages 6-26.
    17. Oussama Ben Atta & Kamal Kasmaoui & Mazhar Yasin Mughal & Farid Makhlouf, 2021. "More remittances, fewer kids—Impact of remittances on fertility in Morocco," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 1238-1256, November.
    18. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2014. "What drives bilateral remittances to Pakistan? A gravity model approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 209, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    19. Farid Makhlouf, 2014. "Propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds des migrants marocains," Working Papers hal-01885146, HAL.
    20. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Yasin Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Competitiveness: a Bayesian Analysis," Post-Print hal-01884858, HAL.
    21. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2013. "Blessing or curse: The stabilizing role of remittances, foreign aid and FDI to Pakistan," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 153, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    22. Ahmed, Junaid & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2015. "Do transfer costs matter for foreign remittances? A gravity model approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    23. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    2. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    3. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Yaseen Mughal, 2012. "Motives to remit: some microeconomic evidence from Pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 574-585.
    4. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2007. "Rational Interacting Agents and Volatility Clustering: A New Approach," MPRA Paper 2984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Allen, David E. & Amram, Ron & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Volatility spillovers from the Chinese stock market to economic neighbours," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 238-257.
    6. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2012. "Does inflation have an impact on stock returns and volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 427-435, March.
    7. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
    8. Suripto & Supriyanto, 2021. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Prices with the Event Window Approach: A Case Study of State Gas Companies, in the Energy Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 155-162.
    9. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    10. Bernardi, Mauro & Costola, Michele, 2019. "High-dimensional sparse financial networks through a regularised regression model," SAFE Working Paper Series 244, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    11. Buczyński Mateusz & Chlebus Marcin, 2018. "Comparison of Semi-Parametric and Benchmark Value-At-Risk Models in Several Time Periods with Different Volatility Levels," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 67-82, June.
    12. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine Huirong, 2009. "The wandering weekday effect in major stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1388-1399, August.
    13. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian, 2011. "Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1076-1089, July.
    14. Payam MOHAMMAD ALIHA & Tamat SARMIDI & Fathin FAIZAH SAID, 2018. "Investigating The Impact Of Financial Innovation On The Volatility Of The Demand For Money In The United Stated In The Context Of An Arch/Garch Model," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 19-26, June.
    15. Hwang, Eunju & Jeon, ChanHyeok, 2024. "Nonnegative GARCH-type models with conditional Gamma distributions and their applications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Kumar, Satish, 2016. "Revisiting calendar anomalies: Three decades of multicurrency evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 16-32.
    17. repec:use:tkiwps:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Market Discipline Under A Politicised Multilateral Fiscal Rule - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-35, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    19. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "A GARCH approach to model short‐term interest rates: Evidence from Spanish economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1621-1632, April.
    20. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. Long H. Vo, 2017. "Estimating Financial Volatility with High-Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(2), pages 84-114, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01884874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.