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Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation

Author

Listed:
  • T. Houet

    (GEODE - Géographie de l'environnement - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • C. Marchadier
  • G. Bretagne
  • P. Moine

    (Adixen - Adixen)

  • Rahim Aguejdad

    (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Viguie

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • M. Bonhomme
  • A. Lemonsu
  • P. Avner

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julia Hidalgo

    (LISST - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Solidarités, Sociétés, Territoires - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT - Université de Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INP - PURPAN - Ecole d'Ingénieurs de Purpan - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse)

  • Valéry Masson

    (CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - OMP - Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Météo-France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UT - Université de Toulouse - Météo-France)

Abstract

Although climate scientists explore the effects of climate change for 2100, it is a challenging time frame for urban modellers to foresee the future of cities. The question addressed in this paper is how to improve the existing methodologies in order to build scenarios to explore urban climate impacts in the long term and at a fine scale. This study provides a structural framework in six steps that combines narratives and model-based approaches. The results present seven scenarios of urban growth based on land use strategies and technological and socio-economic trends. These contrasted scenarios span the largest possible world of futures for the city under study. Urban maps for 2010, 2040 and 2100 were used to assess the impacts on the Urban Heat Island. The comparison of these scenarios and related outputs allowed some levers to be evaluated for their capacity to limit the increase of air temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Houet & C. Marchadier & G. Bretagne & P. Moine & Rahim Aguejdad & Vincent Viguie & M. Bonhomme & A. Lemonsu & P. Avner & Julia Hidalgo & Valéry Masson, 2016. "Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation," Post-Print hal-01695084, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01695084
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Hérivaux, C. & Vinatier, F. & Sabir, M. & Guillot, F. & Rinaudo, J.D., 2021. "Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Thomas, Houet & Gaetan, Palka & Roberta, Rigo & Hugues, Boussard & Jacques, Baudry & Xavier, Poux & Jean-Baptiste, Narcy & Manuel, Alvarez Martinez José & Stefano, Balbi & Cendrine, Mony & Lucie, Leco, 2022. "European blue and green infrastructure network strategy vs. the common agricultural policy. Insights from an integrated case study (Couesnon, Brittany)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Miho Kamei & Alessio Mastrucci & Bas J. van Ruijven, 2021. "A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Elena Cervelli & Ester Scotto di Perta & Stefania Pindozzi, 2020. "Identification of Marginal Landscapes as Support for Sustainable Development: GIS-Based Analysis and Landscape Metrics Assessment in Southern Italy Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-25, July.

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