IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01463927.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Destabilization effect of international trade in a perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium model

Author

Listed:
  • Kazuo Nishimura

    (RIEB, Kobe University - Kobe University, KIER, Kyoto University - Kyoto University)

  • Alain Venditti

    (EDHEC Business School - Département Comptabilité, Droit, Finance et Economie, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Makoto Yano

    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University - Kyoto University)

Abstract

In the present paper, we consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with CIES nonlinear preferences, asymmetric technologies across countries and decreasing returns to scale. It is shown that aggregate instability and endogenous fluctuations may occur due to international trade. In particular, we prove that the integration into a common market on which countries trade the produced good and the capital input may lead to period-two cycles even when the closed-economy equilibrium is saddle-point stable in both countries. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano, 2014. "Destabilization effect of international trade in a perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium model," Post-Print hal-01463927, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01463927
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-013-0758-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tapan Mitra & Gerhard Sorger, 1999. "Rationalizing Policy Functions by Dynamic Optimization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 375-392, March.
    2. Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2009. "International Trade and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," 2009 Meeting Papers 491, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Baierla, Gary & Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1998. "The role of capital depreciation in multi-sectoral models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 467-479, January.
    4. Yano, Makoto, 1985. "Competitive Equilibria on Turnpikes in a McKenzie Economy, II: An Asymptotic Turnpike Theorem," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 661-669, October.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-1329, December.
    6. Ethier,Wilfred J. & Helpman,Elhanan & Neary,J. Peter (ed.), 1993. "Theory, Policy and Dynamics in International Trade," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434423, September.
    7. Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2006. "Demographics in dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin models: overlapping generations versus infinitely lived consumers," Staff Report 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 299-303, May.
    9. Makoto Yano, 1990. "Von neumann facets and the dynamic stability of perfect foresight equilibrium paths in neo-classical trade models," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 27-69, February.
    10. Kazuo Nishimura & Makoto Yano, 2012. "Non-linear Dynamics and Chaos in Optimal Growth: An Example," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 127-150, Springer.
    11. Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano, 2009. "Optimal Growth and Competitive Equilibrium Business Cycles under Decreasing Returns in Two‐Country Models," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 371-391, May.
    12. repec:crs:wpaper:9728 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
    14. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    15. Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano, 2006. "Endogenous Fluctuations In Two‐Country Models," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 516-532, December.
    16. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
    17. Yano, Makoto, 1984. "The primal route to the turnpike and asymptotic stability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 225-234, December.
    18. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-155, February.
    19. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "The Hopf Bifurcation and Existence and Stability of Closed Orbits in Multisector Models of Optimal Economic Growth," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 51-73, Springer.
    20. Yano, Makoto, 1984. "Competitive Equilibria on Turnpikes in a McKenzie Economy, I: A Neighborhood Turnpike Theorem," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(3), pages 695-717, October.
    21. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    22. Bewley, Truman, 1982. "An integration of equilibrium theory and turnpike theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2-3), pages 233-267, September.
    23. Ghiglino, Christian & Venditti, Alain, 2007. "Wealth inequality, preference heterogeneity and macroeconomic volatility in two-sector economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 414-441, July.
    24. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1083-1132.
    25. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    26. Kenji Sato & Makoto Yano, 2013. "Optimal ergodic chaos under slow capital depreciation," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 57-67, March.
    27. Takahashi, Harutaka & Mashiyama, Koichi & Sakagami, Tomoya, 2012. "Does The Capital Intensity Matter? Evidence From The Postwar Japanese Economy And Other Oecd Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 103-116, April.
    28. Venditti, Alain, 1996. "Hopf bifurcation and quasi-periodic dynamics in discrete multisector optimal growth models," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 267-291, September.
    29. Ronald W. Jones, 1967. "International Capital Movements and the Theory of Tariffs and Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 81(1), pages 1-38.
    30. Yano, Makoto, 1984. "The turnpike of dynamic general equilibrium paths and its insensitivity to initial conditions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 235-254, December.
    31. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
    32. Mr. Marco Terrones & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Mr. Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2003/050, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
    34. Kazuo Nishimura & Makoto Yano, 2012. "Interlinkage in the Endogenous Real Business Cycles of International Economies," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 97-124, Springer.
    35. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Competitive Equilibrium Cycles," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 75-96, Springer.
    36. Makoto Yano, 2012. "The von Neumann–McKenzie facet and the Jones Duality theorem in two-sector optimal growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 8(2), pages 213-226, June.
    37. repec:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:si:p:371-391 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Makoto Yano, 1998. "On the Dual Stability of a von Neumann Facet and the Inefficacy of Temporary Fiscal Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 427-452, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kunihiko Konishi, 2015. "Growth Cycles in a Two-country Model of Innovation," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 15-07, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Kevin X. D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Money growth targeting and indeterminacy in small open economies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(3), pages 499-535, October.
    3. Antoine Le Riche, 2017. "Macroeconomic volatility and trade in OLG economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(4), pages 401-425, December.
    4. Le Riche, Antoine & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2022. "Intra-industry trade, involuntary unemployment and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Yuichi Furukawa, 2015. "Leapfrogging cycles in international competition," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(2), pages 401-433, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolff, Reiner, 1997. "Saddle-point dynamics in non-autonomous models of multisector growth with variable returns to scale," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 267-282, April.
    2. Ghiglino, Christian & Venditti, Alain, 2011. "Wealth distribution and output fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2478-2509.
    3. YANO Makoto & FURUKAWA Yuichi, 2019. "Two-dimensional Constrained Chaos and Time in Innovation: An analysis of industrial revolution cycles," Discussion papers 19008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. repec:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:si:p:371-391 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Darong Dai, 2013. "Wealth Martingale and Neighborhood Turnpike Property In Dynamically Complete Market With Heterogeneous Investors," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 86-110, December.
    6. Antoine Le Riche, 2017. "Macroeconomic volatility and trade in OLG economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(4), pages 401-425, December.
    7. Atsumasa Kondo, 2008. "On The Inefficacy Of Temporary Policy In A Dynamic General Equilibrium With Money," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 324-344, September.
    8. Jensen, Martin Kaae, 2012. "Global stability and the “turnpike” in optimal unbounded growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 802-832.
    9. Darong Dai, 2012. "Stochastic Versions of Turnpike Theorems in the Sense of Uniform Topology," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 13(2), pages 381-423, November.
    10. Antoine Le Riche, 2016. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Trade in OLG Economies," Working Papers halshs-01079773, HAL.
    11. Darong Dai, 2014. "The Long-Run Behavior of Consumption and Wealth Dynamics in Complete Financial Market with Heterogeneous Investors," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-16, July.
    12. Antoine Le Riche, 2014. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Trade in OLG Economies," AMSE Working Papers 1446, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Nov 2014.
    13. Dai, Darong, 2011. "Modeling the minimum time needed to economic maturity," MPRA Paper 40583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2012.
    14. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Destabilizing balanced-budget consumption taxes in multi-sector economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 113-130, March.
    15. Antoine Riche & Francesco Magris & Daria Onori, 2020. "Monetary rules in a two-sector endogenous growth model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(4), pages 1049-1100, June.
    16. Alain Venditti, 2012. "Weak concavity properties of indirect utility functions in multisector optimal growth models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 8(1), pages 13-26, March.
    17. Antoine Le Riche & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Efficient Endogenous Fluctuations in Two-Sector OLG Model," Working Papers halshs-00793704, HAL.
    18. Kazuo Nishimura & Florian Pelgrin & Alain Venditti, 2022. "Medium term endogenous fluctuations in three-sector optimal growth models," Working Papers hal-03923999, HAL.
    19. Augeraud-Veron, Emmanuelle & Boucekkine, Raouf & Gozzi, Fausto & Venditti, Alain & Zou, Benteng, 2024. "Fifty years of mathematical growth theory: Classical topics and new trends," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent Sorensen & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Deep Financial Integration And Volatility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1558-1585, December.
    21. Bosi, Stefano & Magris, Francesco & Venditti, Alain, 2005. "Competitive equilibrium cycles with endogenous labor," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 325-349, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate instability; Aggregate instability; C62; E32; Economics general; Economic Theory; End; Endogenous fluctuations; F11; F43; Game Theory; Economics; Social and Behav. Sciences; International trade; Nonlinear preferences; O41; Perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01463927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.