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Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone

Author

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  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Issiaka Coulibaly
  • Olivier Damette

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse currencies' misalignments of the CFA zone countries and the adjustment process of their real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level over the period 1985-2007. To this end, we firstly estimate, using panel cointegration techniques, a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Secondly, we estimate a panel smooth transition error correction model in order to take into account non linearities in the convergence process of real exchange rates towards their equilibrium level. Two main results emerge from our analysis. Firstly, the real appreciation of effective exchange rates in the CFA zone countries from the 2000s did not translate, in 2007, into a real overvaluation comparable to that occurring before the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994. However, some countries are exceptions, indicating a strong heterogeneity within the CFA zone. Finally, the convergence process of real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level also differs substantially between country groups. These results tend to show the difficulty to apply a single exchange rate policy in the CFA zone and rather call for further coordination and policy harmonization between the countries.
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Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2012. "Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone," Post-Print hal-01411706, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01411706
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Cambio di passo per il franco Cfa
      by Massimo Amato in La Voce on 2019-01-29 09:53:35

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    Cited by:

    1. Sosthène Ulrich GNANSOUNOU & Audrey Chouchane, 2013. "Working Paper 166 - Misalignment of Real Effective Exchange Rates: When Should the Franc CFA be Devalued Again?," Working Paper Series 445, African Development Bank.
    2. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Guerreiro, David & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 428-441.
    3. Issiaka Coulibaly, 2012. "The impacts of the Euro on the real exchange rate and the growth in CFA zone countries," Erudite Working Paper 2012-06, Erudite.
    4. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La dynamique d'ajustement des taux de change réels dans la zone franc CFA," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 545-555.
    5. Mohamed Karim & Ahmed Touzani, 2020. "The equilibrium exchange rate and measurement of misalignments in Morocco: Empirical Analysis," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-3.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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