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How Fukushima Dai-ichi core meltdown changed the probability of nuclear accidents

Author

Listed:
  • Lina Escobar Rangel

    (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François Lévêque

    (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

How to compute the probability of a nuclear accident by using past observations? How the observation of the last catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant changed the expected frequency for such events? Little has been the consensus in answering these questions. While opponents of nuclear power claim that the probability of serious accident is very high, the industry ensures that it is negligible. The aim of our paper is to shed light in this controversy by using historical data and an appropriate statistical model. In order to address these questions, we have compared four Poisson models using three different definitions of nuclear accidents from 1952 to 2012. We found that as the definition of accident takes into account other events, (i.e. not only the major nuclear disasters but also less serious accidents) the independence assumption underlying the three first Poisson models is violated. This result called for a time-varying mean model, such as the Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEWMA). By using this last model we find a greater increase in the risk of a core meltdown accident, owing to the accident that took place in Japan in 2011, than the estimates that we obtained using the classic Poisson models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lina Escobar Rangel & François Lévêque, 2014. "How Fukushima Dai-ichi core meltdown changed the probability of nuclear accidents," Post-Print hal-01110974, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01110974
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2013.11.017
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Casper Agaton, 2017. "Coal, Renewable, or Nuclear? A Real Options Approach to Energy Investments in the Philippines," International Journal of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Research, Conscientia Beam, vol. 6(2), pages 50-62.
    2. Romain Bizet & Petyo Bonev & François Lévêque, 2017. "Are older nuclear reactors less safe? Evidence from incident data in the French fleet," Working Papers hal-01695160, HAL.
    3. Cotterman, Turner & Small, Mitchell J. & Wilson, Stephen & Abdulla, Ahmed & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle, 2021. "Applying risk tolerance and socio-technical dynamics for more realistic energy transition pathways," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    4. Quentin Perrier, 2017. "The French Nuclear Bet," Working Papers 2017.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Alexis Louaas and Pierre Picard, 2022. "Optimal Nuclear Liability Insurance," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    6. Perrier, Quentin, 2018. "The second French nuclear bet," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 858-877.
    7. Minh Ha-Duong & Venance Journé, 2014. "Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 249-258, June.
    8. Bizet, Romain & Bonev, Petyo & Lévêque, François, 2022. "The effect of local monitoring on nuclear safety and compliance: Evidence from France," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Quentin Perrier, 2017. "The French nuclear bet," CIRED Working Papers halshs-01487296, HAL.

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