IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01096031.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of time-varying risk on the profitability of contrarian investment strategies in a thinly traded market: a Kalman filter approach

Author

Listed:
  • Antonios Antoniou

    (Durham Business School - Durham University)

  • Emilios C. C Galariotis

    (Durham Business School - Durham University)

  • Spyros I. Spyrou

Abstract

On face value studies documenting contrarian profits challenge the efficient markets paradigm. However most of them assume that systematic risk is constant when in reality it varies (Ross, 1989) especially in emerging markets (Aggarwal et al., 1999). The study in the first instance investigates whether there are long-term contrarian profits in a thinly traded market, and whether such profits can be rationalized by time variation in risk using a Kalman Filtering approach. The results indicate that failing to incorporate time variation in risk may lead to biased conclusions and present false evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. C Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "The effect of time-varying risk on the profitability of contrarian investment strategies in a thinly traded market: a Kalman filter approach," Post-Print hal-01096031, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01096031
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600606180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 33-55, March.
    3. Uri Benzion & Yochanan Shachmurove & Joseph Yagil, 2004. "Subjective discount functions - an experimental approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 299-311.
    4. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    5. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
    6. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "Nonstationary expected returns : Implications for tests of market efficiency and serial correlation in returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 51-74, November.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    8. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Zhang, Hao, 1992. "The Contrarian Investment Strategy Does Not Work in Canadian Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 383-395, September.
    9. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    10. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    11. Bowman, Robert G. & Iverson, David, 1998. "Short-run overreaction in the New Zealand stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 475-491, November.
    12. Roger Vergin, 2001. "Overreaction in the NFL point spread market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 497-509.
    13. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    14. da Costa, Newton Jr., 1994. "Overreaction in the Brazilian stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 633-642, September.
    15. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "Short‐term Contrarian Strategies in the London Stock Exchange: Are They Profitable? Which Factors Affect Them?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 839-867, June.
    16. repec:bla:scotjp:v:44:y:1997:i:5:p:566-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "Short-term Contrarian Strategies in the London Stock Exchange: Are They Profitable? Which Factors Affect Them?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 839-867.
    18. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    19. Clare, A. D. & Smith, P. N. & Thomas, S. H., 1997. "UK stock returns and robust tests of mean variance efficiency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 641-660, May.
    20. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. "Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-135, September.
    21. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    22. Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 131-151, January.
    23. Emilios Galariotis, 2004. "Sources of contrarian profits and return predictability in emerging markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1027-1034.
    24. Emilios C. C Galariotis, 2004. "Sources of contrarian profits and return predictability in emerging markets," Post-Print hal-01096043, HAL.
    25. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2005. "Contrarian Profits and the Overreaction Hypothesis: the Case of the Athens Stock Exchange," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(1), pages 71-98, January.
    26. Christian Jochum, 1999. "Volatility spillovers and the price of risk: Evidence from the Swiss stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 303-322.
    27. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    28. MacKinlay, A Craig & Richardson, Matthew P, 1991. "Using Generalized Method of Moments to Test Mean-Variance Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 511-527, June.
    29. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-163, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Holmes, Phil & Ma, Xiaodong S., 2007. "Contrarian and momentum profitability revisited: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange 1964-2005," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 432-447, December.
    2. Cormac O’ Keeffe & Liam A. Gallagher, 2017. "The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(47), pages 4718-4728, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Holmes, Phil & Ma, Xiaodong S., 2007. "Contrarian and momentum profitability revisited: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange 1964-2005," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 432-447, December.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    3. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    5. Gunaratne, P. S. M. & Yonesawa, Y., 1997. "Return reversals in the Tokyo Stock Exchange: A test of stock market overreaction," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 363-384, August.
    6. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "Short‐term Contrarian Strategies in the London Stock Exchange: Are They Profitable? Which Factors Affect Them?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 839-867, June.
    7. Daske, Stefan, 2002. "Winner-Loser-Effekte am deutschen Aktienmarkt," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,87, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    8. Hon, Mark T. & Tonks, Ian, 2003. "Momentum in the UK stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-70, February.
    9. Mark Schaub, 2006. "Investor overreaction to going concern audit opinion announcements," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1163-1170.
    10. Gaunt, Clive, 2000. "Overreaction in the Australian equity market: 1974-1997," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 375-398, July.
    11. Muhammad Kashif & Sanyah Saad & Imran Umer Chhapra & Farhan Ahmed, 2018. "An Empirical Evidence of Over Reaction Hypothesis on Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 449-465, April.
    12. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    13. Alves, Paulo & Carvalho, Luís, 2020. "Recent evidence on international stock market’s overreaction," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    14. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    15. Achim Himmelmann & Dirk Schiereck & Marc Simpson & Moritz Zschoche, 2012. "Long-term reactions to large stock price declines and increases in the European stock market: a note on market efficiency," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 400-423, April.
    16. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    17. Kang, Joseph & Liu, Ming-Hua & Ni, Sophie Xiaoyan, 2002. "Contrarian and momentum strategies in the China stock market: 1993-2000," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 243-265, June.
    18. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2010. "Choix de portefeuille: comparaison des différentes stratégies [Portfolio selection: comparison of different strategies]," MPRA Paper 82946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2010.
    19. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 418-445, February.
    20. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01096031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.