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Key Success Factors for Technological Entrepreneurs' R&D Projects

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  • Thomas Astebro

    (Joseph L. Rotman School of Management - University of Toronto)

Abstract

The impact of 36 innovation, technology and market characteristics on the probability that early stage R&D projects will reach the market is examined. Analysis is based on data from 561 R&D projects developed by technological entrepreneurs. Four characteristics stand out as most predictive: expected profitability, technological opportunity, development risk and appropriability conditions. These predict future commercial success well with an out-of-sample accuracy of 80.9%. This model performs better than R&D managers' and VCs forecasts of success and has the potential to be used as a screening tool for early stage R&D investment reviews by, for example, VCs. Implications for both research and practice are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Astebro, 2004. "Key Success Factors for Technological Entrepreneurs' R&D Projects," Post-Print hal-00476926, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00476926
    DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2004.830863
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Mignenan, 2023. "Contemporary Perspectives for Technological Entrepreneurship in the Age of Change: Between Success and Resilience," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(6), pages 1-1, June.
    2. Peyman Pournasr Khakbaz, 2012. "Recognition of Structural Obstacles of Technologic Entrepreneurship in Science & Technology Parks," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(4), pages 211-216.
    3. James R. Brown & Gustav Martinsson, 2019. "Does Transparency Stifle or Facilitate Innovation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1600-1623, April.
    4. Daniel Nepelski & Vincent Roy, 2021. "Innovation and innovator assessment in R&I ecosystems: the case of the EU Framework Programme," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 792-827, June.
    5. Liu, Zhiying & Hu, Kaili & Hussain, Ammar, 2023. "R&D disclosure and corporate innovation: Mediating role of financing structure," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Craig Galbraith & Alex DeNoble & Sanford Ehrlich & Jessica Mesmer-Magnus, 2010. "Review panel consensus and post-decision commercial performance: a study of early stage technologies," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 253-281, April.
    7. Huang, Chi-Cheng & Chu, Pin-Yu & Chiang, Yu-Hsiu, 2008. "A fuzzy AHP application in government-sponsored R&D project selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1038-1052, December.
    8. Daniel Nepelski & Vincent Roy & Annarosa Pesole, 2019. "The organisational and geographic diversity and innovation potential of EU-funded research networks," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 359-380, April.
    9. Smirnov, Dmitry, 2021. "Creational theory and the genesis of novelty," OSF Preprints dr6ws, Center for Open Science.
    10. Mijung Jung & Yi-beck Lee & Heesang Lee, 2015. "Classifying and prioritizing the success and failure factors of technology commercialization of public R&D in South Korea: using classification tree analysis," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 40(5), pages 877-898, October.
    11. Vincent Van Roy & Daniel Nepelski, 2018. "Validation of the Innovation Radar assessment framework," JRC Research Reports JRC110926, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Scott A. Jeffrey & Moren Lévesque & Andrew L. Maxwell, 2016. "The non-compensatory relationship between risk and return in business angel investment decision making," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 189-209, July.
    13. Markus A. Kirchberger & Larissa Pohl, 2016. "Technology commercialization: a literature review of success factors and antecedents across different contexts," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1077-1112, October.

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