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Calibration Accuracy of a Judgmental Process that Predicts the Commercial Success of New Product Ideas

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Astebro

    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • D. Koehler

Abstract

We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case-specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Astebro & D. Koehler, 2007. "Calibration Accuracy of a Judgmental Process that Predicts the Commercial Success of New Product Ideas," Post-Print hal-00451653, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00451653
    DOI: 10.1002/bdm.559
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua S. Gans & Scott Stern, 2021. "Enabling Entrepreneurial Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5510-5524, September.
    2. David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2021. "Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long‐term Canadian study," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    3. Gary J. Summers, 2021. "Friction and Decision Rules in Portfolio Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 101-120, June.
    4. Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos & Cherng-Horng (Dan) Lan, 2011. "Herbert Simon’s spell on judgment and decision making," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(8), pages 722-732, December.
    5. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:722-732 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gordon K. Adomdza & Thomas Åstebro & Kevyn Yong, 2016. "Decision biases and entrepreneurial finance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 819-834, December.
    7. Astebro, Thomas B. & Fossen, Frank M. & Gutierrez, Cédric, 2024. "Entrepreneurs: Clueless, Biased, Poor Heuristics, or Bayesian Machines?," IZA Discussion Papers 17231, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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