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Recovering portfolio default intensities implied by CDO quotes

Author

Listed:
  • Rama Cont

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Andreea Minca

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We propose a stable non-parametric algorithm for the calibration of pricing models for portfolio credit derivatives: given a set of observations of market spreads for CDO tranches, we construct a risk-neutral default intensity process for the portfolio underlying the CDO which matches these observations, by looking for the risk neutral loss process 'closest' to a prior loss process, verifying the calibration constraints. We formalize the problem in terms of minimization of relative entropy with respect to the prior under calibration constraints and use convex duality methods to solve the problem: the dual problem is shown to be an intensity control problem, characterized in terms of a Hamilton--Jacobi system of differential equations, for which we present an analytical solution. We illustrate our method on ITRAXX index data: our results reveal strong evidence for the dependence of loss transitions rates on the past number of defaults, thus offering quantitative evidence for contagion effects in the risk--neutral loss process.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama Cont & Andreea Minca, 2013. "Recovering portfolio default intensities implied by CDO quotes," Post-Print hal-00413730, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00413730
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9965.2011.00491.x
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00413730
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rama Cont, 2008. "Frontiers in Quantitative Finance: credit risk and volatility modeling," Post-Print hal-00437588, HAL.
    2. Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2001. "A solution approach to valuation with unhedgeable risks," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 61-82.
    3. Stutzer, Michael, 1996. "A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1633-1652, December.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    5. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
    6. Marco Avellaneda & Craig Friedman & Richard Holmes & Dominick Samperi, 1997. "Calibrating volatility surfaces via relative-entropy minimization," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 37-64.
    7. Richard Rouge & Nicole El Karoui, 2000. "Pricing Via Utility Maximization and Entropy," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 259-276, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicole El Karoui & Monique Jeanblanc & Ying Jiao, 2015. "Density approach in modelling successive defaults," Post-Print hal-00870492, HAL.
    2. Nicole El Karoui & Monique Jeanblanc & Ying Jiao, 2013. "Density approach in modelling multi-defaults," Working Papers hal-00870492, HAL.
    3. Dianfa Chen & Jun Deng & Jianfen Feng & Bin Zou, 2017. "An Explicit Default Contagion Model and Its Application to Credit Derivatives Pricing," Papers 1706.06285, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    4. Amel Bentata & Rama Cont, 2015. "Forward equations for option prices in semimartingale models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 617-651, July.
    5. Azizpour, S & Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2018. "Exploring the sources of default clustering," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 154-183.
    6. El Karoui, Nicole & Jeanblanc, Monique & Jiao, Ying, 2017. "Dynamics of multivariate default system in random environment," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(12), pages 3943-3965.
    7. Zehra Eksi & Damir Filipovi'c, 2020. "Affine Pricing and Hedging of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Papers 2011.10101, arXiv.org.
    8. Cantia, Catalin & Tunaru, Radu, 2017. "A factor model for joint default probabilities. Pricing of CDS, index swaps and index tranches," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-35.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    intensity control; stochastic control; point process; inverse problem; nonparametric methods; credit risk; CDO; contagion;
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