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Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007

Author

Listed:
  • François Facchini

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Dominique Lafay
  • Antoine Auberger

Abstract

This paper discusses the question of electoral prediction based on politico-econometric models. It presents a brief historical sketch of this specific research domain in "political economy", and a synthesis of the present model-based predictions for the French 2007 presidential elections. Because the reviewed models predict different and somewhat opposed results, we suggest to use an ex ante arbitrage, based on a simple indicator, the Figaro-Sofrès popularity index for the socialist party. The arbitrage between potential winners appears to be very clear. As this paper is written six weeks ante eventum, it can be seen as a kind of "natural experiment" in itself, useful to test the predictive capacity of our selected indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • François Facchini & Jean-Dominique Lafay & Antoine Auberger, 2007. "Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007," Post-Print hal-00270445, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00270445
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2007.1687
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00270445
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Bélanger, Éric, 2010. "Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 11-18, January.
    2. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.

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