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Follow the money! Why dividends overreact to flat-tax reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Bach

    (ESSEC Business School, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)

  • Antoine Bozio

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Arthur Guillouzouic

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Claire Leroy

    (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Clément Malgouyres

    (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

We estimate behavioral responses to dividend taxation using recent French reforms: a rate hike followed, five years later, by a cut. Exploiting household and firm tax data as well as data linking firms and shareholders, we find very large dividend tax elasticities to both reforms. Individuals who control firms adjust dividend receipts instantaneously, accounting for most of the aggregate dividend reaction. Investment is insensitive to dividend taxation. Dividend adjustments are instead driven by corporate saving, as owner-managers treat firms as low-tax saving vehicles. Our results fit the ‘new view' of dividend taxation, provided an additional low-tax yet costly payout option is available that offers a tax arbitrage opportunity to entrepreneurs in control of their firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Bach & Antoine Bozio & Arthur Guillouzouic & Claire Leroy & Clément Malgouyres, 2024. "Follow the money! Why dividends overreact to flat-tax reforms," Institut des Politiques Publiques halshs-02415470, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-02415470
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02415470v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alstadsæter, Annette & Jacob, Martin & Michaely, Roni, 2017. "Do dividend taxes affect corporate investment?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 74-83.
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    4. Korinek, Anton & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2009. "Dividend taxation and intertemporal tax arbitrage," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 142-159, February.
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    6. Danny Yagan, 2015. "Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3531-3563, December.
    7. Annette Alstadsæter & Martin Jacob, 2016. "Dividend Taxes and Income Shifting," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(4), pages 693-717, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michaël Sicsic, 2022. "Does labour income react more to income tax or means‐tested benefits reforms?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 291-319, September.
    2. Charles Boissel & Adrien Matray, 2021. "Dividend Taxes and the Allocation of Capital," Working Papers 2021-39, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    3. Katarzyna A. Bilicka & Irem Guceri & Evangelos Koumanakos, 2022. "Dividend Taxation and Firm Performance with Heterogeneous Payout Responses," NBER Working Papers 30808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marie-Noëlle Lefebvre & Eddy Zanoutene, 2022. "Wealth and Income Responses to Dividend Taxation : Evidence from France," TEPP Working Paper 2022-09, TEPP.
    5. Adrien Matray & Charles Boissel, 2020. "Higher Dividend Taxes, No Problem! Evidence from Taxing Entrepreneurs in France," Working Papers 276, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..

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    Keywords

    Dividend tax; Corporate investment; Firm owner-managers;
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