IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v162y2024ics0304405x24001508.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do personal taxes affect investment decisions and stock returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Kontoghiorghes, Alexander P.

Abstract

This paper studies the causal effects of personal investment taxes on stock returns and the financial decisions of companies. I exploit a change in legislation in 2013 which allowed stocks listed on the Alternative Investment Market, a sub-market of the London Stock Exchange, to be held in capital gains and dividend tax-exempt investment accounts for the first time. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that excess stock returns decreased by their pre-legislation change effective tax rate, and that firms adjusted their capital structure and increased their spending on dividends, capital, and labour, in-line with the “traditional view” of corporate investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kontoghiorghes, Alexander P., 2024. "Do personal taxes affect investment decisions and stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001508
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103927
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X24001508
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103927?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    2. Carletti, Elena & De Marco, Filippo & Ioannidou, Vasso & Sette, Enrico, 2021. "Banks as patient lenders: Evidence from a tax reform," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 6-26.
    3. King, A Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Property Tax Capitalization: A Critical Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(2), pages 425-431, April.
    4. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    5. Barrot, Jean-Noel & Kaniel, Ron & Sraer, David, 2016. "Are retail traders compensated for providing liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 146-168.
    6. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Corporate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 791-833.
    7. Arnold C. Harberger, 1962. "The Incidence of the Corporation Income Tax," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 215-215.
    8. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Dividend and Corporate Taxation in an Agency Model of the Firm," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-31, August.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    10. Lixin Huang & Hong Liu, 2007. "Rational Inattention and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1999-2040, August.
    11. Clemens Sialm & Laura T. Starks & Hanjiang Zhang, 2015. "Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Sticky or Discerning Money?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 805-838, April.
    12. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    13. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-298, April.
    14. Desai, Mihir A. & Jin, Li, 2011. "Institutional tax clienteles and payout policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 68-84, April.
    15. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    16. Doukas, John A. & Hoque, Hafiz, 2016. "Why firms favour the AIM when they can list on main market?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 378-404.
    17. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds [The distribution of realized stock return volatility]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    18. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    19. Korinek, Anton & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2009. "Dividend taxation and intertemporal tax arbitrage," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 142-159, February.
    20. Danny Yagan, 2015. "Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3531-3563, December.
    21. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    22. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Taxation and Portfolio Structure: Issues and Implications," NBER Working Papers 8223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Terry S. Moon, 2022. "Capital Gains Taxes and Real Corporate Investment: Evidence from Korea," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2669-2700, August.
    24. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-1383, September.
    25. Brigitte C. Madrian & Dennis F. Shea, 2001. "The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1149-1187.
    26. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    27. Zhonglan Dai & Edward Maydew & Douglas A. Shackelford & Harold H. Zhang, 2008. "Capital Gains Taxes and Asset Prices: Capitalization or Lock‐in?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 709-742, April.
    28. Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2020. "Tax‐Efficient Asset Management: Evidence from Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 735-777, April.
    29. Lin, Leming & Flannery, Mark J., 2013. "Do personal taxes affect capital structure? Evidence from the 2003 tax cut," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 549-565.
    30. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    31. Golubov, Andrey & Lasfer, Meziane & Vitkova, Valeriya, 2020. "Active catering to dividend clienteles: Evidence from takeovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 815-836.
    32. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1984. "New Evidence that Taxes Affect the Valuation of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1397-1415, December.
    33. Franklin Allen & Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2000. "A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2499-2536, December.
    34. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
    35. M. S. Feldstein, 1970. "Corporate Taxation and Dividend Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(1), pages 57-72.
    36. Florian Schulz, 2016. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3185-3223, October.
    37. Faccio, Mara & Xu, Jin, 2015. "Taxes and Capital Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 277-300, June.
    38. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    39. Graham, John R., 1999. "Do personal taxes affect corporate financing decisions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-185, August.
    40. John R. Graham & Alok Kumar, 2006. "Do Dividend Clienteles Exist? Evidence on Dividend Preferences of Retail Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1305-1336, June.
    41. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    42. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2013. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1455-1481, July.
    43. Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H & Womack, Kent L, 1995. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 573-608, June.
    44. Julie Agnew & Pierluigi Balduzzi & Annika Sundén, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Trading in a Large 401(k) Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 193-215, March.
    45. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2007. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 244-249, May.
    46. Alan J. Auerbach, 1979. "Wealth Maximization and the Cost of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(3), pages 433-446.
    47. Joshua D. Rauh, 2006. "Investment and Financing Constraints: Evidence from the Funding of Corporate Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 33-71, February.
    48. Natalie Bau & Adrien Matray, 2023. "Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence From India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 67-106, January.
    49. John R. Graham, 2003. "Taxes and Corporate Finance: A Review," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1075-1129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiayi Cui & Qian Wei & Xiang Gao, 2025. "How Retail vs. Institutional Investor Sentiment Differ in Affecting Chinese Stock Returns?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kontoghiorghes, Alex, 2022. "Do personal taxes affect investment decisions and stock returns?," Bank of England working papers 988, Bank of England.
    2. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Roy Zilberman, 2024. "Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 409-448.
    3. Katarzyna Bilicka & Irem Güçeri & Evangelos Koumanakos & Katarzyna Anna Bilicka & Irem Guceri, 2022. "Dividend Taxation and Firm Performance with Heterogeneous Payout Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 10185, CESifo.
    4. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-1383, September.
    5. Becker, Bo & Jacob, Marcus & Jacob, Martin, 2013. "Payout taxes and the allocation of investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 1-24.
    6. Harju, Jarkko & Koivisto, Aliisa & Matikka, Tuomas, 2022. "The effects of corporate taxes on small firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Masanori Orihara, 2023. "Election-Day Market Reactions to Tax Proposals: Evidence from a Close Vote," Working Papers 2219, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    8. Cave, Joshua & Lancheros, Sandra, 2024. "Local peer influence on dividend payout decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2020. "Tax‐Efficient Asset Management: Evidence from Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 735-777, April.
    10. Alstadsæter, Annette & Jacob, Martin & Michaely, Roni, 2017. "Do dividend taxes affect corporate investment?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 74-83.
    11. Dahlquist, Magnus & Robertsson, Göran & Rydqvist, Kristian, 2014. "Direct evidence of dividend tax clienteles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-12.
    12. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & James R. Hines Jr., 2002. "Dividend Policy inside the Firm," NBER Working Papers 8698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Desai, Mihir A. & Jin, Li, 2011. "Institutional tax clienteles and payout policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 68-84, April.
    14. Chay, J.B. & Chong, Byung-Uk & Im, Hyun Joong, 2023. "Dividend taxes and investment efficiency: Evidence from the 2003 U.S. personal taxation reform," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1).
    15. Clemens Sialm, 2006. "Investment Taxes and Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 12146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hameed, Allaudeen & Xie, Jing, 2019. "Preference for dividends and return comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 103-125.
    17. Atsushi Chino & Joon Ho Kim, 2022. "Does dividend policy affect sales growth in product markets? Evidence from the 2003 dividend tax cut," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 539-571, June.
    18. Thomas Bauer & Thomas Kourouxous & Peter Krenn, 2018. "Taxation and agency conflicts between firm owners and managers: a review," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 11(1), pages 33-76, February.
    19. Ahmad, Fawad & Oriani, Raffaele, 2022. "Investor attention, information acquisition, and value premium: A mispricing perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Borup, Daniel, 2019. "Asset pricing model uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 166-189.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.