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Phasing out fossil fuel in the residential sector: Should new gas boilers be banned ?

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  • Célia Escribe

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Lucas Vivier

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech)

Abstract

The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted authorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers. In this analysis, we simulate the impacts of introducing a ban on gas boilers under 11,664 scenarios covering major uncertainties. Taking France as a case study, we demonstrate that a ban is critical to meet carbon neutrality. The ban achieves a reduction in total system cost in over 75% of scenarios, as costly investments in heat pumps are offset by a more efficient energy system. We demonstrate that the implementation of the ban, when coupled with the existing subsidy frame- work, mitigates inequalities among owner-occupied households but generate adverse affect for those in privately rented homes. Overall, our findings support the introduction of a ban on gas boilers, emphasizing the need to assess policies not only for their cost-effectiveness but also for their robustness to address uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Célia Escribe & Lucas Vivier, 2024. "Phasing out fossil fuel in the residential sector: Should new gas boilers be banned ?," CIRED Working Papers hal-04538870, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04538870
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7f
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04538870v2
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    Keywords

    climate change mitigation; fossil fuel ban; residential sector; energy mix; policy assessment;
    All these keywords.

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