IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-01903510.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dropping Rational Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel De Boisdeffre

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

We consider a pure exchange economy, where agents, typically asymmetrically informed, exchange securities, on financial markets, and commodities, on spot markets. Consumers have private characteristics, anticipations and beliefs, and no model to forecast prices. Rational expectation and bounded rationality assumptions are dropped. We show that agents face an incompressible uncertainty, represented by a so-calles "minimum uncertainty set". This uncertainty typically adds to the exogenous one, on the state of nature, an ‘endogenous uncertainty' over future spot prices. At equilibrium, all agents expect the ‘true' price on every spot market as a possible outcome, and elect optimal strategies, ex ante, which clear on all markets ex post. We show this sequential equilibrium exists whenever agents' prior anticipations embed the minimum uncertainty set. This outcome differs from the standard generic existence results of Hart (1975), Radner (1979), or Duffie-Shaffer (1985), among others based on the rational expectations of prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2018. "Dropping Rational Expectations," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01903510, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01903510
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01903510
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01903510/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernard Cornet & Lionel Boisdeffre, 2009. "Elimination of arbitrage states in asymmetric information models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 38(2), pages 287-293, February.
    2. Ho-Mou Wu & Mordecai Kurz, 1996. "Endogenous uncertainty in a general equilibrium model with price contingent contracts (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 8(3), pages 461-488.
    3. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
    4. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    5. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 859-876, October.
    6. Hart, Oliver D., 1975. "On the optimality of equilibrium when the market structure is incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 418-443, December.
    7. Cornet, Bernard & De Boisdeffre, Lionel, 2002. "Arbitrage and price revelation with asymmetric information and incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 393-410, December.
    8. Bernard Cornet & Lionel Boisdeffre, 2009. "Elimination of arbitrage states in asymmetric information models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 38(2), pages 287-293, February.
    9. Duffie, Darrell & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets: I : A basic model of generic existence," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 285-300, June.
    10. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2018. "Equilibrium with Differential Information and Exogenous Beliefs: A Basic Model of Full Existence," Working papers of CATT hal-02141059, HAL.
    2. Lionel DE BOISDEFFRE, 2018. "Equilibrium with Differential Information and Exogenous Beliefs: A Basic Model of Full Existence," Working Papers 2017-2018_8, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jun 2018.
    3. Lionel de Boisde¤re, 2021. "Dropping Rational Expectations," Post-Print halshs-03196897, HAL.
    4. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2018. "Equilibrium with Differential Information and Exogenous Beliefs: A Basic Model of Full Existence," Working Papers hal-02141059, HAL.
    5. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2018. "Dropping Rational Expectations," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18026, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Lionel de Boisde¤re, 2021. "Dropping Rational Expectations," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03196897, HAL.
    7. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2018. "Dropping Rational Expectations," Post-Print halshs-01903510, HAL.
    8. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2018. "Equilibrium with Differential Information and Exogenous Beliefs: A Basic Model of Full Existence," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02141059, HAL.
    9. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2018. "Sequential equilibrium without rational expectations of prices: A theorem of full existence," Post-Print halshs-01593567, HAL.
    10. Lionel de Boisde¤re, 2021. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets with differential information: A basic model of generic existence," Post-Print halshs-03196857, HAL.
    11. Lionel de Boisde¤re, 2021. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets with differential information: A basic model of generic existence," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03196857, HAL.
    12. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2017. "Sequential equilibrium without rational expectations of prices: A theorem of full existence," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17036r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jun 2018.
    13. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2021. "Dropping the Cass Trick and Extending Cass' Theorem to Asymmetric Information and Restricted Participation," Post-Print halshs-03196923, HAL.
    14. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2018. "Circumventing the Hart Puzzle," Post-Print halshs-01903586, HAL.
    15. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2021. "Dropping the Cass Trick and Extending Cass' Theorem to Asymmetric Information and Restricted Participation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03196923, HAL.
    16. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2018. "Circumventing the Hart Puzzle," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01903586, HAL.
    17. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2018. "Circumventing the Hart Puzzle," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18027, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    18. de Boisdeffre, Lionel, 2021. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets with differential information: A basic model of generic existence," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 53-62.
    19. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2013. "Price revelation and existence of equilibrium in a private belief economy," Post-Print halshs-01053471, HAL.
    20. Lionel DE BOISDEFFRE, 2015. "Learning from arbitrage," Working Papers 2015-2016_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Sep 2015.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01903510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.