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La crise monétaire turque de 2000/2001 : analyse de l'échec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI

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  • Jérôme Héricourt

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julien Reynaud

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article empirically investigates the failure of the Exchange Rate-Based Stabilisation Program started in Turkey in January 2000, under the IMF supervision. For that purpose, a Vectorial Error Correction Model integrating an uncovered interest rate parity modeling short term deviations is estimated. We use an unusual daily database to take into account the everyday commitment of monetary authorities for the crawling exchange rate. The results show the inability of the central bank to sustain the program, despite its seeming flexibility. Indeed, the monetary instrument apparently left to the central bank, namely the monetary base, was actually mainly market-determined.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Héricourt & Julien Reynaud, 2006. "La crise monétaire turque de 2000/2001 : analyse de l'échec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00084717, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00084717
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00084717
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; exchange rate-based stabilization program; monetary policy; Exchange rate crisis; Crise de change; VECM; Turquie; Plan de Stabilisation par le Change; politique monétaire;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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