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Do remittances dampen the effect of natural disasters on output growth volatility in developing countries?

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  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christian Hubert Ebeke

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on the output growth volatility. Using a large sample of developing countries and mobilizing a dynamic panel data framework, it uncovers a diminishing macroeconomic destabilizing consequence of natural disasters as remittance inflows rise. It appears that the effect of natural disasters disappears for a remittance ratio above 8% of GDP. However, remittances aggravate the destabilizing effects of natural disasters when they exceed 17% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Hubert Ebeke, 2011. "Do remittances dampen the effect of natural disasters on output growth volatility in developing countries?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00552220, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cdiwps:halshs-00552220
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00552220
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Boileau Loko & Arina Viseth, 2014. "Credit Quality in Developing Economies: Remittances to the Rescue?," IMF Working Papers 2014/144, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2023. ""From Aspirations for Climate Action to the Reality of Climate Disasters": Can Migrants Play Key Role in Disaster Response?," Working Papers hal-04137400, HAL.
    5. Immaculate Machasio, 2016. "Do Remittance Flows Stabilize Developing Countries in the aftermath of Sovereign Defaults?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201639, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Couharde, Cécile & Generoso, Rémi, 2015. "The ambiguous role of remittances in West African countries facing climate variability," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 493-515, August.
    7. Giulia Bettin & Andrea F. Presbitero & Nikola L. Spatafora, 2017. "Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Nabil Daher, 2024. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters? Evidence from quantile local projections," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 12, Stata Users Group.
    9. Barajas, Adolfo & Chami, Ralph & Ebeke, Christian & Oeking, Anne, 2018. "What's different about monetary policy transmission in remittance-dependent countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 272-288.
    10. Giulia Bettin & Alberto Zazzaro, 2018. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Remittances to Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 481-500, March.
    11. Hou, Yulin & Jia, Shaomeng, 2023. "Do remittances react to commodity windfall? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Mack, Elizabeth A. & Sauls, Laura Aileen & Jokisch, Brad D. & Nolte, Kerstin & Schmook, Birgit & He, Yifan & Radel, Claudia & Allington, Ginger R.H. & Kelley, Lisa C. & Scott, Christian Kelly & Leisz,, 2023. "Remittances and land change: A systematic review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Imene Guetat & Dorsaf Sridi, 2017. "Institutional quality effect on remittances in MENA region," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 84-100, January.
    14. Richa Richa & Ilan Noy & Subir Sen, 2024. "Extreme Weather and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Working Paper Series 10919, CESifo.
    15. Apeti, Ablam Estel, 2023. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani & Filippo Natoli, 2023. "Flight to climatic safety: local natural disasters and global portfolio flows," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1420, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Lim, Sokchea & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2015. "International migration, migrant stock, and remittances: Reexamining the motivations to remit," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 101-115.
    19. Faruk Balli & Faisal Rana, 2014. "Determinants of risk sharing through remittances: cross-country evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2014-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Nabil Daher, 2024. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters? Evidence from quantile local projections," Working Papers 2024.8, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    21. Beaton Kimberly & Cevik Serhan & Yousefi Seyed Reza, 2018. "Smooth operator: remittances and household consumption during fiscal shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    22. Ablam Estel Apeti, 2022. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," Post-Print hal-03819779, HAL.
    23. Ms. Kimberly Beaton & Mr. Serhan Cevik & Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2017. "Smooth Operator: Remittances and Fiscal Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2017/165, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Carine Meyimdjui, 2020. "Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability: Do Fiscal Policy and Remittances Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2020/248, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Zhang, Dayong & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Financial development, natural disasters, and economics of the Pacific small island states," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 168-181.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural disasters; output growth volatility; Remittances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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