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Exposure to Deaths of Despair and U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes

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  • Nicole Siegal

    (University of Hawaii Manoa)

Abstract

This paper evaluates how a community's exposure to deaths from suicide, drug overdose, alcohol poisoning, and liver disease (commonly referred to as Òdeaths of despairÓ) affects outcomes in U.S. Presidential elections. Using county-level panel data and two-way fixed effects regressions, I find that a standard deviation increase in the deaths of despair mortality rate led to an increase in the Republican (GOP) vote share of 2.36 percentage points. Prior studies have linked voting outcomes to economic trends such as income inequality, import competition, and financial crises, but controlling for these and other economic and demographic factors does not substantially change my estimates. Estimates are larger and only statistically significant in later years (2016-2020), compared to earlier years (2004-2012). There were stronger effects in counties that the GOP candidate won in the previous election, and in counties with higher White population percentages. The results are maintained when using an instrumental variables approach to mitigate endogeneity concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Siegal, 2023. "Exposure to Deaths of Despair and U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes," Working Papers 202307, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:202307
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_23-07.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carolina Arteaga & Victoria Barone, 2023. "Democracy and The Opioid Epidemic," Working Papers tecipa-765, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deaths of despair; elections; opioid epidemic; political polarization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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