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PANTA RHEI V -Modelldarstellung und Prognose der CO2-Emissionen

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Distelkamp

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Frank Hohmann

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Christian Lutz

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Marc Ingo Wolter

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

Das Statistische Bundesamt hat der GWS mbH den Auftrag erteilt, für die Jahre 1991 bis 1994 jährliche Input-Output-Tabellen in der Gliederung der NACE unter Berücksichtigung der vorhandenen Tabellen in der alten Gliederung zu ermitteln, diese Zeitreihe dann unter Verwendung der vorhandenen NACE-Tabellen für 1995 und 1997 jährlich fortzuschreiben und kumulierte CO2-Emissionen für die Jahre 2001 bis 2010 zu prognostizieren. Im Abschnitt 2 wird das umweltökonometrische Modell PANTA RHEI V vorgestellt, das auf der Basis der im Projekt berechneten Zeitreihe von Input-Output-Tabellen, den Daten der Umweltökonomischen Gesamtrechnungen zu den Energieverbräuchen und CO2-Emissionen nach Energieträgern und Verwendungsbereichen und weiterer Daten erstellt worden ist. Es handelt sich um eine Weiterentwicklung des in vielen Prognose- und Simulationsrechnungen bewährten Modells PANTA RHEI IV. Das neue Modell wird dann dazu verwendet, die kumulierten CO2-Emissionen jährlich bis zum Jahre 2010 zu prognostizieren. Die Ergebnisse dieser Rechnungen sind im Abschnitt 3 dargestellt. Es zeigt auf der Basis der derzeitigen umwelt- und wirtschaftspolitischen Rahmenbedingungen, dass sowohl bei einer günstigen als auch bei einer schwächeren weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung das Kyoto-Ziel von 780 Millionen Tonnen CO2-Emissionen für Deutschland im Jahre 2010 nicht erreicht werden kann. Es wird im einzelnen dargelegt, welche Entwicklungen bei der Energienachfrage dafür verantwortlich sind. Zusammenfassend kann festgestellt werden, dass das Wachstum der Energieproduktivität in Deutschland nicht ausreichen wird, um Wirtschaftswachstum und Energieverbrauch vollständig zu entkoppeln. Die zu erwartenden Entwicklungen bei der Zusammensetzung des Energieverbrauchs in Richtung auf CO2-arme Energieträger werden deshalb auch nur ausreichen, um die kumulierten CO2-Emissionen bei günstiger weltwirtschaftlicher Entwicklung etwa auf dem heutigen Niveau zu halten. Im folgenden werden das zur Prognose eingesetzte Modell selbst und die Ergebnisse dokumentiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Distelkamp & Frank Hohmann & Dr. Christian Lutz & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2003. "PANTA RHEI V -Modelldarstellung und Prognose der CO2-Emissionen," GWS Discussion Paper Series 03-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:03-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bach, Stefan & Kohlhaas, Michael & Meyer, Bernd & Praetorius, Barbara & Welsch, Heinz, 2002. "The effects of environmental fiscal reform in Germany: a simulation study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 803-811, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2-Emissionen; Prognose; PHANTA RHEI; Input-Output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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