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The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does it Spread Around the World?

Author

Listed:
  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky

    (George Washington University and NBER)

  • Leandro Medina

    (Strategy Policy and Review Department, International Monetary Fund)

  • Shiyi Wang

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

With a novel database, we examine the evolution of capital flows to the periphery since the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in the early 1970s. We decompose capital flows into global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors. In contrast to previous findings, which mostly use data from the 2000s, we find that booms and busts in capital flows are mainly explained by regional factors and not the global factor. We then ask, what drives these regional factors. Is it the leverage cycle in the financial center? What triggers the leverage cycle in the financial center? Is it a change in global investors’ risk appetite? Or, is it a change in the demand for capital in the periphery? We link leverage in the financial center to regional capital flows and the cost of borrowing in international capital markets to answer these questions. Our estimations indicate that regional capital flows are driven by supply shocks. Interestingly, we find that the leverage in the financial center has a time-varying behavior, with a movement away from lending to the emerging periphery in the 1970s to the 1990s towards lending to the advanced periphery in the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Leandro Medina & Shiyi Wang, 2020. "The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does it Spread Around the World?," Working Papers 2020-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2020-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. "Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-1540, December.
    2. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom - Bust Capital Flow Cycles," Working Papers 2019-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shambaugh, Jay C. & Zhou, Hang, 2024. "Interest rates across the world: Global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Borrowing Cycles; Global and Regional Factors; Push and Pull Factors of Capital Flows; Financial Center Leverage Cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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