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HIV Does Matter for Fertility: Human Capital, Mortality and Family Size

Author

Listed:
  • Günther Fink

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Sebastian Linnemayr

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

In this paper we provide new evidence regarding the long-term impact of HIV on fertility and economic development. We develop a theoretical framework where parents optimally allocate their resources between child-rearing and consumption, and incorporate both infant and adult mortality in their fertility decision. The model predicts an ambiguous overall effect of HIV on fertility, but suggests that the optimal fertility adjustment to HIV is larger for more educated parents than for parents with little or no formal education. We test this prediction using a novel data set combining historical individual level data from World Fertility Surveys (WFS) with recent data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) including nationally representative HIV-testing. The result that more educated women reduce fertility more than uneducated mothers in the presence of HIV appears to hold both in the longitudinal and the cross-sectional analysis. Our results imply that HIV is unlikely to have a significant effect on population size, but will negatively affect countries’ long term economic prospects through an adverse shift in the population’s human capital composition.

Suggested Citation

  • Günther Fink & Sebastian Linnemayr, 2013. "HIV Does Matter for Fertility: Human Capital, Mortality and Family Size," PGDA Working Papers 10913, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:10913
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    File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2013/PGDA_WP_109.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, 2018. "Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 429-451, April.
    2. Gil Shapira, 2017. "How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(3), pages 680-718.
    3. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
    4. Nicholas Wilson, 2015. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume II: Human Capital, pages 59-83, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
    6. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2016. "Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(3), pages 215-242, September.
    7. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    8. William W. Olney, 2015. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 694-727.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV; Fertility; Mortality; Family Size; Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

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