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Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis

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  • Sentana, E.

Abstract

In an economy with one riskless and one risky asset, we compare the Sharpe ratios of investment funds that allow: i) timing strategies which forecast the market using simple regressions; ii) a strategy which uses multiple regression instead; and iii) a passive allocation which combines the funds in i) with constant weightings.

Suggested Citation

  • Sentana, E., 1997. "Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis," Papers 9711, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:cemfdt:9711
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
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    4. Weiss, Andrew A, 1996. "Estimating Time Series Models Using the Relevant Cost Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 539-560, Sept.-Oct.
    5. Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "On the efficient estimation of simultaneous equations with covariance restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 247-265, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    3. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2012. "Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean–variance frontiers: A unifying approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 303-324.
    5. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2003. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2024. "Portfolio management with big data," Working Papers wp2024_2411, CEMFI.
    7. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
    8. Xavier Gerard & Ron Guido & Peter Wesselius, 2013. "Integrated alpha modelling," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3), pages 140-161, June.
    9. Enrique Sentana, 2009. "The econometrics of mean-variance efficiency tests: a survey," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 65-101, November.
    10. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2022. "PML vs minimum χ 2 : the comeback," Working Papers wp2022_2210, CEMFI.
    11. René Garcia & Éric Renault & Georges Tsafack, 2007. "Proper Conditioning for Coherent VaR in Portfolio Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 483-494, March.

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    Keywords

    RISK ; MODELS;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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