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Intertemporal analysis of state and local government spending: theory and tests

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  • Douglas Holtz-Eakin
  • Harvey S. Rosen

Abstract

Do state and local governments smooth their consumption spending across years, or is their spending driven mainly by contemporaneous changes in resources? We design a test to determine which view of state and local spending is more consistent with the data. We find that state and local spending is determined primarily by current (as opposed to permanent) resources. That is, despite their apparent ability to skirt balanced budget laws, states and localities do not typically smooth their expenditures over time.
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Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Harvey S. Rosen, 1989. "Intertemporal analysis of state and local government spending: theory and tests," Working Papers 89-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:89-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Charles R. Hulten & Robert M. Schwab, 1988. "Income Originating in the State and Local Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Federalism: Quantitative Studies, pages 215-254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    4. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-273, March.
    5. Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-136, February.
    6. Mieszkowski, Peter & Zodrow, George R, 1989. "Taxation and the Tiebout Model: The Differential Effects of Head Taxes, Taxes on Land Rents, and Property Taxes," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1098-1146, September.
    7. Poterba, James M & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    9. Harvey S. Rosen, 1988. "Fiscal Federalism: Quantitative Studies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rose88-1.
    10. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1987. "The optimal collection of seigniorage : Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-341, September.
    11. Michael J. Boskin & Marc S. Robinson & Alan M. Huber, 1987. "New Estimates of State and Local Government Tangible Capital and Net Investment," NBER Working Papers 2131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Harvey S. Rosen, 1989. "Municipal Construction Spending: An Empirical Examination," NBER Working Papers 2989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expenditures; Public; Municipal finance; state finances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General

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