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The Long and Short of It: The Impact of Unemployment Duration on Compensation Growth

Author

Listed:
  • M. Henry Linder
  • Richard Peach
  • Robert W. Rich

Abstract

How tight is the labor market? The unemployment rate is down substantially from its October 2009 peak, but two-thirds of the decline is due to people dropping out of the labor force. In addition, an unusually large share of the unemployed has been out of work for twenty-seven weeks or more—the long-duration unemployed. These statistics suggest that there remains a great deal of slack in U.S. labor markets, which should be putting downward pressure on labor compensation. Instead, compensation growth has moved modestly higher since 2009. A potential explanation is that the long-duration unemployed exert less influence on wages than the short-duration unemployed, a hypothesis we examine here. While preliminary, our findings provide some support for this hypothesis and show that models taking into account unemployment duration produce more accurate forecasts of compensation growth.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Henry Linder & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2014. "The Long and Short of It: The Impact of Unemployment Duration on Compensation Growth," Liberty Street Economics 20140212, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:86922
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kiley, Michael T., 2015. "An evaluation of the inflationary pressure associated with short- and long-term unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 5-9.
    2. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    3. Davide Romaniello, 2022. "Unemployment gap, isteresi e disoccupazione di lunga durata: quale ruolo nella comprensione dell'inflazione? (Unemployment gap, hysteresis and long-term unemployment: which role in explaining inflatio," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 75(299), pages 267-283.
    4. Speigner, Bradley, 2014. "Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve," Bank of England working papers 519, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Compensation Growth; Short-term Unemployment; Phillips Curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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