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New economy - new policy rules?

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Abstract

The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard economy in which a version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy for a given inflation target and a given level of productivity. We augment this model with regime switching in productivity, and calculate the optimal monetary policy rule in the altered environment. We find that in the altered environment, a rule that incorporates leading indicators about regimes significantly outperforms the Taylor rule. We use this result to comment on the \"new economy\" events of the 1990s and the \"stagflation\" events of the 1970s form the perspective of our model.

Suggested Citation

  • James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2000. "New economy - new policy rules?," Working Papers 2000-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-019
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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2011. "Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1685-1706, December.
    2. Claus Rabe & Harris Selod, "undated". "Place-based economic policies: international lessons for South Africa," Working Papers 11, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. Mewael Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2004. "Heterogeneous Information about the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Forecast Targeting," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 78, Econometric Society.
    4. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
    5. James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April.
    6. Schaling, E., 2003. "Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy," Other publications TiSEM 49f6213d-93d9-4a5a-85ca-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Haydar Akyazi & Seyfettin Artan, 2006. "Reflections of the New Economy on the Monetary Policy and Central Banking," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 373-387, Izmir University of Economics.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2003_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: The response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1527-1567.
    10. Schaling, Eric, 2003. "Learning, inflation expectations and optimal monetary policy," Research Discussion Papers 20/2003, Bank of Finland.
    11. Eric Schaling & James Bullard, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 362, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael, 2004. "Heterogenous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
    13. Schaling, E., 2003. "Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper 2003-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Berk, Jan Marc, 2001. "New economy, old central banks? Monetary transmission in a new economic environment," Serie Research Memoranda 0032, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    16. Schaling, Eric, 2003. "Learning, inflation expectations and optimal monetary policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2003, Bank of Finland.
    17. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts, 2010. "Why Speed Doesn’t Kill: Learning to Believe in Disinflation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 23-42, April.
    19. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-087/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Aug 2002.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Inflation (Finance); economic conditions - United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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