IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/1988-002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why do market interest rates respond to money announcements?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

A number of studies have attempted to determine why money market interest rates are positively correlated with unanticipated increases in the money stock by examining the response of the foreign exchange and stock markets to money announcements. They report a significant positive relationship between the trade-weighted exchange rate and unanticipated increases in the money stock and a significant negative relationship between unanticipated increases in the money stock and stock prices. These results are taken as evidence in favor of the \"unanticipated-liquidity-effect\" explanation of the money market's response. This paper analyzes the response of these markets and investigates the consistency of the response to unanticipated changes in the money stock across markets. We find that the results for the foreign exchange and stock markets are sensitive to a few \"outliers\" so that these markets do not respond strongly to unanticipated changes in the money stock. Furthermore, all three markets generally do not respond significantly to the same money announcements. We conclude that the often-cited evidence is not sufficient to differentiate the anticipated?liquidity?effect from competing explanations of the money market's response to unanticipated changes in the money stock.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Thornton, 1988. "Why do market interest rates respond to money announcements?," Working Papers 1988-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1988-002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/1988-002/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1988/1988-002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rik Hafer, 1986. "The response of stock prices to changes in weekly money and the discount rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 5-14.
    2. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May.
    3. Hakkio, Craig S & Pearce, Douglas K, 1985. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates to Economic News," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(4), pages 621-636, October.
    4. Daniel L. Thornton, 1988. "The borrowed-reserves operating procedures: theory and evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 30-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
    3. Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
    4. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    5. M. D. Mckenzie & R. D. Brooks, 2003. "The role of information in Hong Kong individual stock futures trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 123-131.
    6. Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
    7. Daniel L. Thornton, 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Working Papers 1999-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriele M. Lepori, 2022. "Do financial markets respond to macroeconomic surprises? Evidence from the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2371, May.
    9. Julio Pindado & Ignacio Requejo & Juan C. Rivera, 2020. "Does money supply shape corporate capital structure? International evidence from a panel data analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 554-584, April.
    10. Gasbarro, Dominic & Monroe, Gary S., 2004. "The impact of monetary policy candidness on Australian financial markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-46, February.
    11. Prather, Laurie & Bertin, William J., 1997. "A simple and effective trading rule for individual investors," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 285-294.
    12. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects," Working Papers 2007-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Dufour, Jean-Marie & García, René, 2008. "Measuring causality between volatility and returns with high-frequency data," UC3M Working papers. Economics we084422, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    14. Moorthy, Vivek, 1996. "Predictable and profitable price patterns: Evidence from US interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 101-107, April.
    15. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Time‐Varying Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market: New Evidence on its Persistence and on Currency Spillovers," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 759-793, June.
    16. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations," NBER Working Papers 1858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
    18. Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
    19. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1988-002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.