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Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data

Author

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  • Craig S. Hakkio
  • Jun Nie

Abstract

We construct a monthly measure of foreign economic growth based on a wide range of cross-county indicators. Unlike GDP data, which are normally released with a delay of one to two quarters in most countries, our monthly measure incorporates monthly information up to the current month. As new information arrives, this measure of foreign growth can be updated as frequently as daily. This monthly measure of foreign growth not only helps gauge the economic conditions in other countries but also provides a timely measure of foreign demand to help forecast U.S. export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig S. Hakkio & Jun Nie, 2018. "Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 18-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp18-14
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2018-14
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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