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A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves

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Abstract

We model bargaining between non-bank investors and heterogeneous bank borrowers in the federal funds market. The analysis highlights how the federal funds rate will respond to movements in other money market interest rates in an environment with elevated levels of excess reserves. The model predicts that the administered rate offered through the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility influences the fed funds rate even when the facility is not used. Changes in repo rates pass through to the federal funds rate, but by less than one-for-one. We calibrate the model to data from 2017 and find in an out-of-sample test that the model quantitatively matches the increase in the federal funds rate in the first four months of 2018. The rise in the fed funds rate in 2018 is attributed to movements in repo rates and not to changes in the scarcity value of reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Clouse & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves," Working Paper Series WP-2018-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2018-08
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2018-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gara Afonso & Roc Armenter & Benjamin Lester, 2019. "A Model of the Federal Funds Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 177-204, July.
    2. Thomas Keating & Marco Macchiavelli, 2017. "Interest on Reserves and Arbitrage in Post-Crisis Money Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-124, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Roc Armenter & Benjamin Lester, 2017. "Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy Implementation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 212-235, January.
    4. Bech, Morten L. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: Interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 415-431.
    5. Jane E. Ihrig & Ellen E. Meade & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 2015. "Rewriting Monetary Policy 101: What's the Fed's Preferred Post-Crisis Approach to Raising Interest Rates?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 177-198, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gara Afonso & Kyungmin Kim & Antoine Martin & Ed Nosal & Simon M. Potter & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2023. "Monetary Policy Implementation with Ample Reserves," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Jane E. Ihrig & Zeynep Senyuz & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 2020. "The Fed’s “Ample-Reserves” Approach to Implementing Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Gara Afonso & Domenico Giannone & Gabriele La Spada & John C. Williams, 2022. "Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve," Staff Reports 1019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Manjola Tase, 2022. "Demand Segmentation in the Federal Funds Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal funds market; federal funds rates; Federal Reserve; interest rates; money markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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