IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/637.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the dynamics of trade diversion: evidence from four trade blocs

Author

Listed:
  • Caroline L. Freund
  • John McLaren

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of trade reorientation experienced when a country joins a regional trade bloc. We find that the joining country's trade orientation toward bloc countries typically rises along an `S'-shaped path. We estimate the size, speed, and timing of this adjustment path for a `typical' joining country, for four trade agreements. We find that, in the European Union (EU), the incumbent bloc countries' share of the joining country's trade typically rose by eighteen percentage points over the course of the adjustment; that this took twelve years; and that the adjustment began four years before the date of accession. MERCOSUR shows a similar pattern in progress, but NAFTA and EFTA are more idiosyncratic. We argue that the data provide strong evidence of anticipatory sunk investments made to prepare for accession.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline L. Freund & John McLaren, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade diversion: evidence from four trade blocs," International Finance Discussion Papers 637, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/637/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/637/ifdp637.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aileen J. Thompson, 1993. "The Anticipated Sectoral Adjustment to the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: An Event Study Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 253-271, May.
    2. Winters, L Alan, 1984. "British Imports of Manufactures and the Common Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 103-118, March.
    3. Winters, L. Alan, 1985. "Separability and the modelling of international economic integration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 335-353.
    4. Thompson, Aileen J., 1994. "Trade liberalization, comparative advantage, and scale economies stock market evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 1-27, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2005. "EU Accession Effects on the Demand for Manufactures: the Case of Greece," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 58(4), pages 471-488.
    2. Rasyad A. Parinduri & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2013. "Trade liberalization, free trade agreements, and the value of firms: Stock market evidence from Singapore," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 924-941, September.
    3. Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Who benefits from regional trade agreements? The view from the stock market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-47.
    4. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Hanson, Robert C. & Song, Moon H., 1998. "Shareholder wealth effects of free trade: U.S. and Mexican stock market response to nafta," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 209-224.
    6. Helena Marques, 2008. "Trade And Factor Flows In A Diverse Eu: What Lessons For The Eastern Enlargement(S)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 364-408, April.
    7. Basyah, Mohammad & Hartigan, James C., 2007. "Analyst earnings forecast revisions and the persistence of antidumping relief," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-399.
    8. Peter H Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2020. "The US–Chinese trade war: an event study of stock-market responses," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 519-559.
    9. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
    10. Lucian Cernat, 2001. "ASSESSING REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ARE SOUTH–SOUTH RTAs MORE TRADE DIVERTING?," International Trade 0109001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Rehbein, Kathleen & Starks, Laura T., 1995. "Changes in U.S. trade policies: the wealth effects on Japanese steel firms," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 309-327, September.
    12. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    13. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Henry Overman & L. Alan Winters, 2004. "The Geography of UK International Trade," CEP Discussion Papers dp0606, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Ronning, Gerd, 1989. "An econometric analysis of West-German coffee imports," Discussion Papers, Series II 92, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    16. Peter Egger & Kurt Kratena, 2001. "A Tale of Competition between Eastern and Southern Europe (Rerum Concordia Discors)," WIFO Working Papers 170, WIFO.
    17. Kara M. Reynolds, 2005. "Anticipated versus Realized Benefits: Can Event Studies Be Used To Predict the Impact of New Regulations?," International Trade 0512005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Overman, Henry George & Winters, L. Alan, 2003. "Trade shocks and industrial location: the impact of EEC accession on the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121691, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Aaditya Mattoo & Robert W Staiger, 2020. "Trade wars: What do they mean? Why are they happening now? What are the costs?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 561-584.
    20. Marc J. Melitz & Daniel Trefler, 2012. "Gains from Trade When Firms Matter," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 91-118, Spring.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Free trade;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.