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Did the debt crisis cause the investment crisis?

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  • Andrew M. Warner

Abstract

There is now a large literature which attributes the investment decline in heavily indebted developing countries to the effects of the international debt crisis which began in 1982. However, these theories have not been tested against the alternative that declining terms of trade and high world real interest rates in the early 1980s directly caused the investment declines. This paper is based on the idea that if the debt theories are true, then forecasts of investment in the 1980s which do not use debt variables should not perform very well. This paper points out that such forecasts perform surprisingly well, and in many cases go against the predictions of the debt theories, casting doubt on the validity of the debt theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. Warner, 1991. "Did the debt crisis cause the investment crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 418, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:418
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    2. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Market-Based Debt-Reduction Schemes," NBER Working Papers 2587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    6. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-475, June.
    7. Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "Voluntary Debt Reduction: Incentives and Welfare," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 580-611, September.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 1990. "Debt Overhang, Debt Reduction and Investment: The Case of the Philippines," IMF Working Papers 1990/077, International Monetary Fund.
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