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Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones

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  • Robert P. Flood
  • Donald J. Mathieson
  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System is then used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. While some statistical evidence of non-linearities in conditional means of exchange rates is detected, these seem to have little economic content. A number of implications of existing \"target zone\" exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing models of limited exchange rate flexibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert P. Flood & Donald J. Mathieson & Andrew K. Rose, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:388
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Reitz Stefan & Taylor Mark P., 2013. "The Danish krone-euro exchange rate and Danmark Nationalbank intervention operations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 239-249, May.
    2. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2013. "Exchange rates in target zones: Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    4. Marko Malovic, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets: A Showdown for Few Theoretical Misconceptions," Economic Analysis, Institute of Economic Sciences, vol. 40(1-2), pages 17-28.
    5. Susan M. Collins, 1992. "The Expected Timing of EMS Realignments: 1979-83," NBER Working Papers 4068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeff Frankel, Steve Phillips, and Menzie Chinn., 1992. "Financial and Currency Integration in the European Monetary System: The Statistical Record," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C92-005, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2004. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 46-69.
    8. de Jong, F.C.J.M., 1991. "A univariate analysis of EMS exchange rates using a target zone model," Other publications TiSEM 1679fc86-dc04-441f-8034-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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