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The stock market and exchange rate dynamics

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  • Michael K. Gavin

Abstract

This paper articulates a model of the small, open economy in which the stock market, rather than the bond market, determines domestic aggregate demand. It resembles in many respects the widely adopted dynamic Mundell-Fleming approach, but can, in some circumstances, exhibit output and asset price dynamics that differ in economically illuminating ways from that more standard framework. In particular, if the stock market effects are important enough, then a monetary expansion can result in real exchange rate appreciation, rather than depreciation. Anticipated fiscal expansion can, if the favorable effects on future productivity lead to strong enough stock market effects, lead to an output expansion, rather than a contraction as in, for example, Burgstaller (1983), Blanchard (1984) and Branson, Fraga and Johnson (1985). Furthermore, if the delay between announcement and implementation of the fiscal expansion is long enough, an anticipated fiscal expansion can lead to exchange rate depreciation, rather than appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael K. Gavin, 1986. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," International Finance Discussion Papers 278, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:278
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    2. William H. Branson & Willem H. Buiter, 1982. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Keywords

    Stock market; Foreign exchange rates;

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