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Adaptively evolving expectations in models of monetarydynamics‐ The fundamentalists forward looking

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  • C. Chiarella
  • P. Khomin

Abstract

In the basic Cagan model of monetary dynamics, we allow inflationary expectations tobe formed as a weighted average of fundamentalist and chartists expectations. We allow theweights to evolve adaptively according to the mechanism of Brock and Hommes [3] and study the resulting dynamic behaviour. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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  • C. Chiarella & P. Khomin, 1999. "Adaptively evolving expectations in models of monetarydynamics‐ The fundamentalists forward looking," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 89(0), pages 21-34, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:89:y:1999:i:0:p:21-34:10.1023/a:1018975607106
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1018975607106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    2. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
    3. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    4. Chiarella, Carl, 1986. "Perfect foresight models and the dynamic instability problem from a higher viewpoint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 283-292, October.
    5. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    6. George, Donald A. R. & Oxley, Leslie T., 1985. "Structural stability and model design," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 307-316, October.
    7. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    9. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
    11. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    12. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 1996. "Real and monetary cycles in models of Keynes-Wicksell type," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 327-351, September.
    13. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2018. "The role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 206-236.
    2. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    3. Maurizio Bovi & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 451-469, December.
    4. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Brock, William A., 2000. "Whither nonlinear?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 663-678, June.

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