IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/261.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipatory capital flows and the behaviour of the dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Arnold Kling

Abstract

In this paper, I argue that the value of the dollar is influenced by the \"state of long-term expectation\" and that market expectations do not appear to embody a return to steady state. I suggest that the recent strength of investment in the United States reflects \"animal spirits\" and those investors appear to expect the investment boom to he sustained indefinitely. Finally, I show how an adverse shift in perceptions concerning the profitability of investment, by altering this state of expectations and thereby affecting international capital flows, conceivably could put upward pressure on interest rates that would outweigh the downward pressure coming from the actual slowdown in investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold Kling, 1985. "Anticipatory capital flows and the behaviour of the dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 261, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:261
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1985/261/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1985/261/ifdp261.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 117-197.
    2. William H. Branson & Arminio Fraga & Robert A. Johnson, 1985. "Expected fiscal policy and the recession of 1982," International Finance Discussion Papers 272, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," NBER Working Papers 1636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 230-231, January.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 876-878, October.
    7. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 619-631, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1986. "The Dollar as Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists," NBER Working Papers 1854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    2. Jyh-Lin Wu, 1994. "Fiscal announcements and real exchange rate dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 177-190, March.
    3. Amir H. Mozayani & Sanaz Parvizi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC): Focusing on Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 261-276, Spring.
    4. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    5. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 2007. "A structuralist model of the small open economy in the short, medium and long run," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-254, June.
    6. Mr. Felix Fischer & Charlotte J. Lundgren & Mr. Samir Jahjah, 2013. "Making Monetary Policy More Effective: The Case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2013/226, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jacob A. Frenkel & Assaf Razin, 1984. "Fiscal Policies, Debt, and International Economic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 1266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pradipta Kumar Sahoo & D. Tripati Rao & Badri Narayan Rath, 2019. "Does Financial Integration Reduce Output Volatility? New Evidence from Cross‐Country Data," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 38(1), pages 41-55, March.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2014. "Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Volatility And International Financial Integration: A Dynamic Generalised Method Of Moments Panel Approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 810-820, August.
    10. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Bok, Tomas, 2001. "The European Monetary Union: were there alternatives to the ECB?: A quantitative evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 775-806, October.
    11. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 628, Boston College Department of Economics.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    14. Virgiliu Midrigan & Patrick Kehoe, 2012. "The Puzzling Behavior of Real Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 910, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    16. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    17. James L Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2014. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 66-83, January.
    18. Maurice Larrain, 2003. "Central bank intervention, the current account, and exchange rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 196-205, August.
    19. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    20. Makin, Anthony J., 1998. "A dependent economy model of public expenditure and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 453-463.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.