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The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation

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Abstract

Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war."

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Caldara & Sarah Conlisk & Matteo Iacoviello & Maddie Penn, 2022. "The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation," FEDS Notes 2022-05-27-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-05-27-2
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3141
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the-effect-of-the-war-in-ukraine-on-global-activity-and-inflation-20220527.htm
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    1. repec:ocp:rpecon:rp_08-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eduardo A. Haddad & Inácio F. Araújo & Ademir Rocha & Karina Simone Sass, 2023. "Input–output analysis of the Ukraine war: A tool for assessing the internal territorial impacts of the conflict," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 8-55, February.
    3. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German business cycle," IMFS Working Paper Series 184, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Zhang, Long & Padhan, Hemachandra & Singh, Sanjay Kumar & Gupta, Monika, 2024. "The impact of renewable energy on inflation in G7 economies: Evidence from artificial neural networks and machine learning methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Javier Felipe-Andreu & Antonio Valero & Alicia Valero, 2022. "Territorial Inequalities, Ecological and Material Footprints of the Energy Transition: Case Study of the Cantabrian-Mediterranean Bioregion," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James (Jim) C. MacGee & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-3, Bank of Canada.
    9. Moritz Grebe & Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202314, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. André, Marine C. & Armijo, Alberto & Espidio, Sebastián Medina & Sandoval, Jamel, 2023. "Policy mix in a small open emerging economy with commodity prices," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    11. Giorgiana Roxana Ene, 2023. "A Snapshot of Where We Are. A Gross Domestic Product Analysis Related to Household Energy Price Index in the European Union," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 360-367, August.
    12. repec:ocp:rpaper:rp-0822 is not listed on IDEAS

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