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The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics After Lift-Off

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  • Timothy S. Hills
  • Taisuke Nakata
  • Sebastian Schmidt

Abstract

In this note, we analyze an implication of the effective lower bound (ELB) risk--the possibility that adverse shocks will force policymakers in the future to lower the policy rate to the ELB--on inflation dynamics after liftoff.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2016. "The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics After Lift-Off," FEDS Notes 2016-02-12-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2016-02-12-2
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.1690
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2016. "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
    4. Laurence M. Ball, 2013. "The Case for Four Percent Inflation," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(2), pages 17-31.
    5. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
    6. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 289-344.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    9. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
    10. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    2. Schmidt, Sebastian & Nakata, Taisuke, 2016. "The risk-adjusted monetary policy rule," Working Paper Series 1985, European Central Bank.

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