IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2019-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding Bank and Nonbank Credit Cycles: A Structural Exploration

Author

Abstract

We explore the structural drivers of bank and nonbank credit cycles using an estimated medium-scale macro model that allows for bank and nonbank financial intermediation. We posit economy-wide aggregate and sectoral disturbances to potentially drive bank and nonbank credit growth. We find that sectoral shocks affecting the balance sheets of entrepreneurs who borrow from the financial sector are important for the business cycle frequency fluctuations in bank and nonbank credit growth. Economy-wide entrepreneurial risk shocks gain predominance for explaining the longer-horizon comovement between the two series.

Suggested Citation

  • Bora Durdu & Molin Zhong, 2019. "Understanding Bank and Nonbank Credit Cycles: A Structural Exploration," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-31
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    3. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    4. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    5. Gertler, M. & Kiyotaki, N. & Prestipino, A., 2016. "Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1345-1425, Elsevier.
    6. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2019. "Shadow banking and financial regulation: A small-scale DSGE perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 130-144.
    7. Andrea Ajello, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Investment Dynamics, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2256-2303, August.
    8. Matteo Iacoviello, 2015. "Financial Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 140-164, January.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    10. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    11. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    12. Lang, Larry & Ofek, Eli & Stulz, Rene M., 1996. "Leverage, investment, and firm growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-29, January.
    13. Laurent Clerc & Alexis Derviz & Caterina Mendicino & Stephane Moyen & Kalin Nikolov & Livio Stracca & Javier Suarez & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 9-63, June.
    14. Omer Brav, 2009. "Access to Capital, Capital Structure, and the Funding of the Firm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 263-308, February.
    15. Fiorella De Fiore & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1571-1598, December.
    16. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    17. Afanasyeva, Elena & Güntner, Jochen, 2020. "Bank market power and the risk channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 118-134.
    18. Damiano Sandri & FabiÁn Valencia, 2013. "Financial Crises and Recapitalizations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 59-86, December.
    19. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    20. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    21. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    22. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
    23. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo & Kozo Ueda, 2017. "Chained Credit Contracts And Financial Accelerators," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 565-579, January.
    24. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1271-1297, September.
    25. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 198-211, March.
    26. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 877-899, April.
    27. Nicolas Crouzet, 2018. "Aggregate Implications of Corporate Debt Choices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1635-1682.
    28. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    29. Dempsey, Kyle P., 2020. "Macroprudential capital requirements with non-bank finance," Working Paper Series 2415, European Central Bank.
    30. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    31. Fiorella De Fiore & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Bank Finance versus Bond Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1399-1421, October.
    32. Joshua H. Gallin, 2013. "Shadow banking and the funding of the nonfinancial sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Herman, Alexander & Igan, Deniz & Solé, Juan, 2017. "The macroeconomic relevance of bank and nonbank credit: An exploration of U.S. data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 124-141.
    34. Juliane Begenau & Tim Landvoigt, 2021. "Financial Regulation in a Quantitative Model of the Modern Banking System," NBER Working Papers 28501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Filippo Ferroni & Stefano Grassi & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2019. "Selecting structural innovations in DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 205-220, March.
    36. Fiorella De Fiore & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Bank Finance versus Bond Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1399-1421, October.
    37. Joshua Gallin, 2013. "Shadow Banking and the Funding of the Nonfinancial Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 89-123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olivier de Bandt & Bora Durdu & Hibiki Ichiue & Yasin Mimir & Jolan Mohimont & Kalin Nikolov & Sigrid Roehrs & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Valerio Scalone & Michael Straughan, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Basel III: Review of Transmission Channels and Insights from Policy Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 1-52, February.
    2. Hibiki Ichiue & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Yasin Mimir & Jolan Mohimont & Kalin Nikolov & Olivier de Bandt & Sigrid Roehrs & Valério Scalone & Michael Straughan & Bora Durdu, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Basel III: Evidence from Structural Macroeconomic Models," Working Papers hal-04159816, HAL.
    3. Richard Simmons, 2024. "Monetary Transmission & Small Firm Credit Rationing: The Stablecoin Opportunity to Raise Business Credit Flows," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2022. "The fall in shadow banking and the slow U.S. recovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    4. Xiang, Haotian, 2022. "Corporate debt choice and bank capital regulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "Bank capital shortfall in the euro area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Thomas Brand & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Risk Shocks and Divergence between the Euro Area and the US in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 143, pages 137-163.
    7. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    8. Reiter, Michael & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2023. "Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Silvestrini, Andrea & Zaghini, Andrea, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: From theory to estimation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 915-929.
    10. Kirchner Philipp, 2020. "On Shadow Banking and Financial Frictions in DSGE Modeling," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 71(2), pages 101-133, August.
    11. Andrea Ajello, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Investment Dynamics, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2256-2303, August.
    12. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "News and financial intermediation in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations," MPRA Paper 38986, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2012.
    13. Jelena Zivanovic, 2019. "Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 19-5, Bank of Canada.
    14. Arseneau, David & Brang, Grace & Darst, Matt & Faber, Jacob & Rappoport, David & Vardoulakis, Alexandros, 2023. "A Macroprudential Perspective on the Regulatory Boundaries of US Financial Assets," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, July.
    15. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Michael Kühl, 2018. "The Effects of Government Bond Purchases on Leverage Constraints of Banks and Non-Financial Firms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 93-161, September.
    17. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2013. "The anatomy of standard DSGE models with financial frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 32-51.
    18. Brand, Thomas & Isoré, Marlène & Tripier, Fabien, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and firm creation: Search and monitoring in the credit market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 19-53.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    20. Philipp Kirchner, 2020. "On shadow banking and fiÂ…nancial frictions in DSGE modeling," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202019, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Capital Requirements; Credit Cycles; DSGE Models; Leverage; Nonbanks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.