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Can the US Interbank Market be Revived?

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Abstract

Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve as well as new Basel III banking regulations have led to important changes in U.S. money markets. Most notably the interbank market has essentially disappeared with the dramatic increase in excess reserves held by banks. We build a model in the tradition of Poole (1968) to study whether interbank market activity can be revived if the supply of excess reserves is decreased sufficiently. We show that it may not be possible to revive the market to pre-crisis volumes due to costs associated with recent banking regulations. Although the volume of interbank trading may initially increase as excess reserves continue to decline, the new regulations may engender changes in market structure that result in interbank trading being completely replaced by non-bank lending to banks when excess reserves become scarce. This non-monotonic response of interbank trading volume to reductions in excess reserves may lead to misleading forecasts about future fed funds prices and quantities when/if the Fed begins to normalize their balance sheet by reducing excess reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyungmin Kim & Antoine Martin & Ed Nosal, 2018. "Can the US Interbank Market be Revived?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-088, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-88
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gara Afonso & Ricardo Lagos, 2015. "Trade Dynamics in the Market for Federal Funds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 263-313, January.
    2. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Balke, Florian & Barth, Andreas & Eren, Egemen, 2022. "Spillovers of funding dry-ups," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Roc Armenter & Benjamin Lester, 2017. "Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy Implementation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 212-235, January.
    4. Antoine Martin & James J. McAndrews & Ali Palida & David R. Skeie, 2013. "Federal Reserve tools for managing rates and reserves," Staff Reports 642, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. William Poole, 1968. "Commercial Bank Reserve Management In A Stochastic Model: Implications For Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 769-791, December.
    6. Berentsen, Aleksander & Kraenzlin, Sébastien & Müller, Benjamin, 2018. "Exit strategies for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 20-40.
    7. Han Chen & Jim Clouse & Jane Ihrig & Elizabeth Klee, 2016. "The Federal Reserve's Tools for Policy Normalization in a Preferred Habitat Model of Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 921-955, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Garratt & Sofia Priazhkina, 2022. "Regulatory Requirements of Banks and Arbitrage in the Post-Crisis Federal Funds Market," Staff Working Papers 22-48, Bank of Canada.
    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    3. repec:fip:a00001:95904 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fiorella De Fiore & Marie Hoerova & Ciaran Rogers & Harald Uhlig, 2018. "Money Markets, Collateral and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 25319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gara Afonso & Domenico Giannone & Gabriele La Spada & John C. Williams, 2022. "Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve," Staff Reports 1019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Christopher J. Gust & Kyungmin Kim & Romina Ruprecht, 2023. "The Effects of CBDC on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. repec:fip:a00001:91177 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:fip:a00001:90557 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Beltran, Daniel O. & Bolotnyy, Valentin & Klee, Elizabeth, 2021. "The federal funds network and monetary policy transmission: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 187-202.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance sheet costs; Interbank market; Monetary policy implementation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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