IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2017-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank Failures, Capital Buffers, and Exposure to the Housing Market Bubble

Author

Abstract

We empirically document that banks with greater exposure to high home price-to-income ratio regions in 2005 and 2006 have higher mortgage delinquency and charge-off rates and significantly higher probabilities of failure during the last financial crisis even after controlling for capital, liquidity, and other standard bank performance measures. While high price-to-income ratios present a greater likelihood of house price correction, we find no evidence that banks managed this risk by building stronger capital buffers. Our results suggest that there is scope for improved measures of mortgage loan risk that could be considered for regulatory and risk management applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Gazi I. Kara & Cindy M. Vojtech, 2017. "Bank Failures, Capital Buffers, and Exposure to the Housing Market Bubble," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-115, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-115
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2017115pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2017.115?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Adonis Antoniades, 2015. "Commercial bank failures during The Great Recession: the real (estate) story," BIS Working Papers 530, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. DeYoung, Robert, 2003. "The failure of new entrants in commercial banking markets: a split-population duration analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33.
    5. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    7. Morris A. Davis & Francois Ortalo-Magne, 2011. "Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 248-261, April.
    8. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    9. Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
    10. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    11. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q I), pages 21-31.
    12. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    13. Robert B. Avery & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Glenn B. Canner, 2007. "Opportunities and Issues in Using HMDA Data," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(4), pages 351-380.
    14. Elena Loutskina & Philip E. Strahan, 2009. "Securitization and the Declining Impact of Bank Finance on Loan Supply: Evidence from Mortgage Originations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 861-889, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gazi I Kara & Youngsuk Yook, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit," BIS Working Papers 820, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiorazzo, Vincenzo & D'Apice, Vincenzo & DeYoung, Robert & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2018. "Is the traditional banking model a survivor?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 238-256.
    2. Gazi I. Kara & Youngsuk Yook, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Paul Tanyi & Jack Cathey, 2024. "The audit of banks in the USA: Has it changed since the financial crisis?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 378-403, December.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Sehwa Kim, 2022. "Delays in Banks’ Loan Loss Provisioning and Economic Downturns: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 711-754, June.
    6. Pilar B. Álvarez-Franco & Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón, 2016. "Managerial efficiency and failure of U.S. commercial banks during the 2007-2009 financial crisis: was this time different?," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 20(43), pages 4-22, December.
    7. Balla, Eliana & Mazur, Laurel C. & Prescott, Edward Simpson & Walter, John R., 2019. "A comparison of community bank failures and FDIC losses in the 1986–92 and 2007–13 banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Mr. Marco Arena & Serpil Bouza & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Lamin Njie, 2015. "Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/011, International Monetary Fund.
    9. King, Timothy & Srivastav, Abhishek & Williams, Jonathan, 2016. "What's in an education? Implications of CEO education for bank performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 287-308.
    10. Kočenda, Evžen & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2020. "Bank survival in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 860-878.
    11. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    12. Nadauld, Taylor D. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2012. "Did securitization affect the cost of corporate debt?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 332-352.
    13. Ongena, Steven & Kara, Alper & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2011. "Securitization and lending standards: evidence from the wholesale loan market," Working Paper Series 1362, European Central Bank.
    14. Zarutskie, Rebecca, 2013. "Competition, financial innovation and commercial bank loan portfolios," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 373-396.
    15. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2018. "Complex Mortgages [Why don’t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures, and securitization]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 1975-2007.
    16. Alper Kara & David Marques-Ibanez & Steven Ongena, 2015. "Securitization and Credit Quality," Working Papers 15013, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    17. Bakoush, Mohamed & Abouarab, Rabab & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "Disentangling the impact of securitization on bank profitability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 519-537.
    18. Viral V Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2021. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4090-4131.
    19. Eglė Jakučionytė & Swapnil Singh, 2023. "Emergence of subprime lending in minority neighborhoods," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(6), pages 1547-1583, November.
    20. Lara Cathcart & Lina El-Jahel & Ravel Jabbour, 2017. "Basel II: an engine without brakes," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 359-374, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank failure; Credit risk; Mortgage risk; Residential real estate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.