Regime-Switching Models for Estimating Inflation Uncertainty
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2015.093
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2015.
"Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence,"
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, February.
- Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend, Cross-Sectional Evidence," Working Papers 015, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
- Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1993.
"Unobserved-Component Time Series Models with Markov-Switching Heteroscedasticity: Changes in Regime and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 341-349, July.
- Kim, C.J., 1992. "Unobserved-Component Time-Series Models with Markov- Switching Heteroskedasticity: Changes in Regimes and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Papers 92-1, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013.
"A New Model of Trend Inflation,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.
- Joshua Chan & Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2012. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Working Papers 1202, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Joshua C C Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M Potter, 2012. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2012-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A New Model Of Trend Inflation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-12, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A new model of trend inflation," MPRA Paper 39496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013.
"Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2012. "Do oil prices help forecast U.S. real GDP? the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007.
"Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markku Lanne, 2006.
"Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168, December.
- Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
- Lanne, Markku, 2002. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2002, Bank of Finland.
- Markku Lanne, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Macroeconomics 0405014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014.
"Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
- Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2008. "Monetary policy regime shifts and inflation persistence," Research Working Paper RWP 08-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Taeyoung Doh & Troy Davig, 2009. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," 2009 Meeting Papers 182, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994.
"Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
- Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Mustafa Akay & Berat Bayram & Abdullah Kazdal & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Investigating Regime-Dependent Dynamics in Country Risk Premium: Evidence from Turkey and Emerging Markets," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2008, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Nicolas Pesci & Jean-Philippe Aguilar & Victor James & Fabien Rouillé, 2022. "Inflation Forecasts and European Asset Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, October.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2016. "Non-Linear Phillips Curves with Inflation Regime-Switching," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012.
"Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Paper series 34_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-113, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Papers 1119, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009.
"Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
- Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Testing for conditional heteroscedasticity in the components of inflation," Working Papers 0812, Banco de España.
- Syarifah Inayati & Nur Iriawan & Irhamah, 2024. "A Markov Switching Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-23, July.
- Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015.
"Macroeconomic regimes,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
- Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Antonio Moreno, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," NBER Working Papers 17090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baele, L.T.M. & Bekaert, G.R.J. & Cho, S. & Inghelbrecht, K. & Moreno, A., 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Other publications TiSEM e92a1993-778e-4ce2-b603-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- L. Baele & G. Bekaert & S. Cho & K. Inghelbrecht & A. Moreno, 2013. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/870, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Lieven Baele & et al., 2012. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Faculty Working Papers 03/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015.
"Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
- Giovanni Calice & RongHui Miao & Filip Sterba & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Short-Term Determinants of the Idiosyncratic Sovereign Risk Premium: A Regime-Dependent Analysis for European Credit Default Swaps," Working Papers 2013/13, Czech National Bank.
- Vašíček, Bořek & Calice, Giovanni & Miao, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip, 2014. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: a regime-dependent analysis for european credit default swaps," Working Paper Series 1717, European Central Bank.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fiorentini, Gabriele & Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro, 2016. "Skewness and kurtosis of multivariate Markov-switching processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 153-159.
- Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shih‐Tang Hwu & Chang‐Jin Kim, 2019. "Estimating Trend Inflation Based on Unobserved Components Model: Is It Correlated with the Inflation Gap?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2305-2319, December.
- Engel, Charles & Kim, Chang-Jin, 1999.
"The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 335-356, August.
- Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 96-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-14, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Charles Engel & Chang-Jin Kim, 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 5777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023.
"Underlying inflation and asymetric risks,"
Working Papers
2319, Banco de España.
- Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.
- Adam Check & Jeremy Piger, 2021. "Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1999-2036, December.
- Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017.
"Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ilut, Cosmin & Bianchi, Francesco, 2013. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 9645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2014. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 20194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Castillo & Alberto Humala & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)," Working Papers 2007-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2020.
"Inflation, uncertainty, and labour market conditions in the US,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(52), pages 5770-5782, November.
- Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2020. "Inflation, uncertainty, and labour market conditions in the US," Post-Print hal-03558119, HAL.
- Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2020. "Inflation, uncertainty and labor market conditions in the US," Working Papers hal-02464147, HAL.
- Antonio N. Bojanic, 2021. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation in Bolivia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, March.
- Yunus Aksoy & Rubens Morita & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2019.
"The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Macroeconomic Causality Regimes,"
BCAM Working Papers
1910, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
- Yunus Aksoy & Rubens Morita & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2019. "The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Macroeconomic Causality Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8035, CESifo.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999.
"Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions,"
Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington
0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Working Papers 0041, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Bidarkota, Prasad V., 1998. "The comparative forecast performance of univariate and multivariate models: an application to real interest rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 457-468, December.
More about this item
Keywords
Inflation; Markov-Switching; Uncertainty;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2016-03-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2016-03-06 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2016-03-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2016-03-06 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.