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Supervisor ratings and the contraction of bank lending to small businesses

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Bank lending to small firms in the U.S. fell substantially during the recent financial crisis and the ensuing recession. Because small firms account for a disproportionate share of new job creation, lending to these firms could have important implications for the pace of economic recovery. A number of factors may have contributed to the decline in small business lending over this period. This paper examines the extent to which changes in banks' supervisory ratings are associated with changes in the rate of growth of their lending to small businesses. Limiting our sample to small banks (those with total assets of $5 billion or less), we estimate the relationship between changes in supervisory CAMELS ratings and changes in small commercial and industrial (C&I) or small commercial real estate (CRE) loans to businesses, between 2007 and 2010. Controlling for other relevant factors, including several balance sheet measures of bank health, we find that small banks that experienced ratings downgrades during 2007-2010 exhibited significantly lower rates of growth in small C&I loans and small CRE loans outstanding compared with banks that maintained their ratings at healthy levels during the same period. We also find evidence suggesting that the slower growth in small business lending at downgraded banks is attributable primarily to aspects of the banks' financial health that were not fully reflected in balance sheet data, rather than to the ratings downgrades themselves or the supervisory process surrounding the downgrades.

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  • Elizabeth K. Kiser & Robin A. Prager & Jason R. Scott, 2012. "Supervisor ratings and the contraction of bank lending to small businesses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-59
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    1. Bassett, William F. & Lee, Seung Jung & Spiller, Thomas Popeck, 2015. "Estimating changes in supervisory standards and their economic effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 21-43.
    2. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S & Tootell, Geoffrey M B, 2003. "Identifying the Macroeconomic Effect of Loan Supply Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 931-946, December.
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    5. Curry, Timothy J. & Fissel, Gary S. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2008. "The impact of bank supervision on loan growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 113-134, August.
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    7. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 1999. "The role of supervisory screens and econometric models in off-site surveillance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Nov), pages 31-56.
    8. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jan.), pages 47-63.
    9. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2009. "Do supervisory rating standards change over time?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-24.
    10. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory McKee & Albert Kagan, 2018. "Community bank structure an x-efficiency approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 19-41, July.
    2. Beverly Hirtle & Anna Kovner & Matthew Plosser, 2020. "The Impact of Supervision on Bank Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2765-2808, October.
    3. Bassett, William F. & Lee, Seung Jung & Spiller, Thomas Popeck, 2015. "Estimating changes in supervisory standards and their economic effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 21-43.
    4. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2017. "The Effect of Bank Supervision on Risk Taking : Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-079, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Fuchs, Larissa & Ngyuen, Huyen & Nguyen, Trang & Schaeck, Klaus, 2024. "Climate stress tests, bank lending, and the transition to the carbon-neutral economy," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.

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