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Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia

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  • Hao Wang
  • Hao Zhou
  • Yi Zhou

Abstract

We find that firm-level variance risk premium, estimated as the difference between option-implied and expected variances, has a prominent explanatory power for credit spreads in the presence of market- and firm-level risk control variables identified in the existing literature. Such a predictability complements that of the leading state variable--leverage ratio--and strengthens significantly with lower firm credit rating, longer credit contract maturity, and model-free implied variance. We provide further evidence that: (1) variance risk premium has a cleaner systematic component and Granger-causes implied and expected variances, (2) the cross-section of firms' variance risk premia seem to price the market variance risk correctly, and (3) a structural model with stochastic volatility can reproduce the predictability pattern of variance risk premia for credit spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Wang & Hao Zhou & Yi Zhou, 2011. "Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Aramonte, Sirio, 2014. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 25-49.

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    Swaps (Finance); Risk;

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