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Does the labor share of income drive inflation?

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Abstract

Woodford (2001) has presented evidence that the new-Keynesian Phillips curve fits the empirical behavior of inflation well when the labor income share is used as a driving variable, but fits poorly when deterministically detrended output is used. He concludes that the output gap--the deviation between actual and potential output--is better captured by the labor income share, in turn implying that central banks should raise interest rates in response to increases in the labor share. We show that the empirical evidence generally suggests that the labor share version of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve is a very poor model of price inflation. We conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as a good measure of the output gap, or as an appropriate variable for incorporation in a monetary policy rule.

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  • Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "Does the labor share of income drive inflation?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-30
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    1. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    2. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    3. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The Case for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    5. Argia M. Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    6. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135, Elsevier.
    7. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    8. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    9. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    10. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 40/2008.
    2. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
    3. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    4. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    5. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:zbw:bofism:2008_040 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    8. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    9. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne A., 2016. "Unit Total Costs: An Alternative Marginal Cost Proxy For Inflation Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1826-1849, October.
    11. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032.
    12. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
    13. William Baeza L. & Pablo García., 2003. "Medidas Alternativas de Brechas en Modelos de Inflación," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(2), pages 77-94, August.
    14. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2008_040, July.
    15. Erika Gulyas & Richard Startz, 2005. "The Tradeoff between Inflation and the Real Economy: Forward-Looking Behavior and the Inflation Premium," Working Papers UWEC-2005-25, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    16. Nuno Alves, 2004. "A Flexible View on Prices," Working Papers w200406, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Holmberg, Karolina, 2006. "Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 197, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Phillips curve;

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