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Tests for non-linear dynamics in systems of non-stationary economic time series: the case of short-term US interest rates

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Abstract

Using Hall and Heyde's (1980) representation theorem, we show that the stationary co-integration relations of an integrated system are generally non-linear stochastic processes. We propose a sequential non-parametric procedure to test stationary co-integration relations for non-linear dynamics, and apply this procedure to short term U.S. interest rates as an illustration. We demonstrate that the weekly federal funds rate is co-integrated with Treasury bill and commercial paper rates and that the co-integration relations are non-linear.

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  • Barry E. Jones & Travis D. Nesmith, 1999. "Tests for non-linear dynamics in systems of non-stationary economic time series: the case of short-term US interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-55
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    Interest rates; time series analysis;

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